Naig: Iowa agriculture faces a prolonged downturn; tariffs, trade and domestic demand are central

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig said Iowa's agricultural economy is in a sustained downturn and described it as "tough," telling Iowa Press that trade measures such as tariffs and evolving negotiations are central to how the sector fares.

"We've been saying for the last two years that there's a softening of the ag economy. We're past that. It's not softening now. It's tough," Naig said on the April 25 broadcast. He said farm profitability and margins are lower now than in earlier tariff-era disruptions and that the sector has less buffer to absorb shocks.

Naig discussed tariffs and trade negotiations, noting past rounds of federal assistance such as market facilitation payments and urging readiness from the U.S. Department of Agriculture for possible assistance. "USDA needs to be ready to provide assistance if they can," he said.

He said expanding domestic demand for corn and soybeans — including year-round access to E15 gasoline, renewable biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel — could help, but warned domestic use cannot fully replace major export markets such as China. "We're not going to replace China with year-round E15," he said.

Naig also cited efforts to develop new markets, including outreach to India, as potential long-term opportunities. He said trade diversification and negotiated deals could improve the outlook over several years but cautioned the timeline and scale of change vary by commodity.

The hosts asked whether a second round of tariffs could require sizable federal payouts; Naig said he did not have an estimate but acknowledged such assistance could be large depending on the disruption.

The secretary tied the ag outlook to the overall state economy, saying "you can't imagine a strong Iowa economy without a strong agriculture economy."