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City budget office reports $817.5 million two‑year shortfall; supervisors hear March update

April 23, 2025 | San Francisco County, California


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City budget office reports $817.5 million two‑year shortfall; supervisors hear March update
The Budget and Appropriations Committee heard a March update to the city and county's five‑year financial plan on April 23, 2025, during a public meeting at San Francisco City Hall.

"At a very high level the March update shows an $817,500,000 shortfall over the next 2 years," Mayor's budget director Sophia Kittler told the committee, adding the March numbers represent an improvement of roughly $58.5 million over the December 2024 projection but leaving a larger structural shortfall of about $1.3 billion over the five‑year outlook.

Kittler described the plan as a status‑quo document showing projected revenues and expenditures if no new policies are adopted. She and other budget staff said the March revision reflects a mix of changes: weaker hotel and sales tax revenue and reduced expected FEMA reimbursements, offset in part by higher business tax filings and increased property tax receipts following state adjustments to school funding formulas.

"This is not some deficit that will solve itself," Kittler said, noting the mayor instructed budget staff to aim to reduce the long‑term structural deficit by roughly a third in the upcoming budget process. She reminded the committee the administration must present a balanced budget by June 1.

Committee members pressed staff on several technical assumptions used in the forecast. Controller and budget officials explained the city continues to assume the retirement system will meet its assumed earnings rate for calculating employer contributions, but acknowledged that actual market volatility can change contribution requirements with limited lead time. Staff said they plan to communicate with the retirement board and consider reserve strategies if contribution rates rise mid‑year.

After the presentation and public comment (none registered on this item), Chair Connie Chan moved that the hearing be "heard and filed." The motion was seconded and approved by roll call (tally recorded as five ayes). The committee took no additional formal action on budget policy at the hearing; staff said any recommended policy changes would be proposed during the regular June budget process.

The committee heard this item as an informational update from the mayor's budget office and controller's staff; the presentation and subsequent questions focused on revenue assumptions, FEMA reimbursements, and the risks posed by national economic uncertainty.

Looking ahead, staff said the May revised state budget and ongoing federal developments will shape final estimates. Kittler and other staff invited supervisors to continue discussions with the administration as the city develops recommended balancing proposals before the June 1 deadline.

Details from the presentation and the committee's roll call are part of the official hearing record.

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