Clear Creek County staff model tradeoffs between a 2% public‑safety sales tax and a 15‑mill property tax increase; grocery-store impacts flagged

County staff presented a modeling analysis comparing a 2% public‑safety sales tax against a roughly equivalent 15‑mill property‑tax increase and outlined fiscal, equity and local‑market tradeoffs.

The staff presentation estimated Clear Creek County’s assessed value at about $33.338 billion and projected that a 2% countywide public‑safety sales tax would generate between roughly $5 million and $5.6 million annually if grocery purchases were included in the tax base. Staff said exempting groceries from the new 2% rate would reduce the revenue estimate (the presentation put the lower bound at about $4.25 million, with the precise figure dependent on consumer patterns and taxable share assumptions).

Presenters explained assumptions used in the model: a conservative share of taxable consumption occurs inside county boundaries (staff used a 50% capture assumption for many taxable categories), grocery spending patterns by income, and differing marginal propensities to consume across income brackets. Staff also described how online shopping and proximity to large retailers outside the county (notably a Walmart outside parts of the county) change local capture of sales tax revenue.

Staff modeled impacts on representative households and a commercial property. For several resident household types — a family of four at median income, a single senior on Social Security, a “house‑poor” single adult with two children and lower income — the presentation showed that a 2% sales tax (if groceries are taxed) would produce a larger out‑of‑pocket increase for typical households than a 15‑mill property‑tax increase. Conversely, commercial properties (assessed and taxed at higher rates) were shown to carry a larger share of property‑tax increases while also producing sizable sales‑tax revenue when businesses sell to visitors.

Commissioners and municipal leaders raised a specific local impact: staff compared visitation and store‑traffic data for the Idaho Springs Safeway and a nearby Walmart/El Rancho store. Staff said about 256,000 visits to the Safeway came from county ZIP codes and that many county residents — and a larger fraction of distant customers — shop at the Walmart because it is cheaper and because food is not taxed there in the county's modeling. Presenters warned that taxing groceries could accelerate a “death spiral” for local grocery stores by reducing volume and forcing higher prices.

Several officials said they favored a sales‑tax‑first approach for a near‑term ballot measure because it is easier to target visitors — but others argued property tax is more stable and less likely to be avoided by residents who can shop off‑county or online.

Ending: Commissioners directed staff to continue scenario modeling (including a variant that exempts groceries) and to prepare budget and ballot timelines; staff noted the county needs to signal intent to the clerk by July if it intends a ballot measure this year.