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NAU study finds mixed economic effects from Flagstaff's higher minimum wage
Summary
A Northern Arizona University Economic Policy Institute study presented to the Coconino County Workforce Development Board found mixed impacts from Flagstaff's 2017 minimum-wage increase: some industries and wages rose, while modeled job counts in construction and manufacturing were lower than a synthetic control would have predicted.
Northern Arizona University researchers told the Coconino County Workforce Development Board on Thursday that the city’s higher minimum wage has produced mixed results for employment, wages and local industry structure.
The Economic Policy Institute researchers — Nancy Baca, associate teaching professor of economics at the W. A. Franke College of Business and director of NAU’s Economic Policy Institute; Melissa Jerrinson, research associate; and Fei Fei Zhang, research associate — said they combined a quantitative difference-in-differences model with focus groups and interviews to evaluate Flagstaff’s minimum-wage policy, implemented in 2017.
The study compared Flagstaff’s outcomes to a constructed “synthetic” metropolitan statistical area (MSA) made from weighted parts of other MSAs to estimate what would have happened without the local wage floor. The researchers warned of limitations, including the pandemic’s disturbance of trends and a smaller qualitative sample than planned.
On the quan…
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