Richmond city assessor forecasts 6% increase in taxable assessments for next reassessment

Richard McKeith, Richmond’s city assessor, told the City Council at a budget work session that he is recommending a 6% increase in the city’s land-book taxable assessments for the next reassessment cycle, effective Jan. 1, 2026.

McKeith said the 6% forecast reflects recent local market history — including back-to-back double-digit increases earlier in the decade followed by smaller gains — current assessment-to-sale price ratios that leave less room for upward adjustments, and independent corroboration from an economist the assessor’s office recently retained. “I want to try to be as spot on as I can possibly be, but not be too aggressive because we really don't know yet exactly what is going to happen,” McKeith said during the meeting.

Why it matters: the assessor’s forecast helps set the taxable base that city staff use to prepare revenue estimates for the FY2026 budget. A higher or lower assessment roll changes projected property tax revenue and affects how the council and administration size services, programs and the tax rate.

What McKeith reported: he described the recent pattern in Richmond assessments — very large increases around tax year 2022–2023, followed by a 7.7% rise for tax year 2024 and a 6.77% rise for tax year 2025 — and said the 6% recommendation is informed by that recent trend plus current assessment/sale-price ratios in many neighborhoods in the high 80s and 90s. He said apartments had “caught up” in prior years and that their contribution to the roll has moderated. McKeith also said he and the office’s economist were within about a half-percentage point of one another on initial forecasts, which gave him added confidence in the 6% figure.

Council questions and follow-up: Council members asked for more specific supporting numbers. Council Member Kenya Gibson (participating virtually) asked for the underlying dollar amount the 6% is being applied to, including whether the assessor’s office accounts for delinquent tax collections; McKeith said his work uses the land-book number multiplied by the percent (he does not handle delinquent tax collections) and agreed to provide the land-book figure for 2025. Council Member Laura Lynch asked how Richmond’s timing compares with neighboring localities; McKeith said counties typically complete assessment work later in the season and that Richmond’s calendar has required earlier forecasting, which is why he and others have been pushing to change the city’s reassessment calendar.

What McKeith said he did not do: the assessor emphasized his office does not control revenue budgeting or tax-rate setting; he provides the assessment forecast used for revenue estimates. He also said he did not want to be “overly aggressive” given macroeconomic uncertainty, including interest-rate expectations from the Federal Reserve.

Next steps: McKeith said he would notify the council promptly if he sees evidence that should change the forecast. Council members requested the assessor’s land-book dollar total that underlies the 6% projection so the finance team and council can translate the percentage into revenue estimates.