Legislative analyst urges pause on 2026 nonresident replacement plan; UC says continued enrollment growth is at risk without funding

The Assembly committee reviewed enrollment trends and the status of the state’s nonresident replacement plan for UC Berkeley, UCLA and UC San Diego. Ian Klein of the Legislative Analyst’s Office told the committee that UC exceeded recent California undergraduate enrollment goals and that campuses expect additional resident growth in 2025. But with the governor’s budget deferring funding tied to replacements and growth, the LAO recommended pausing the nonresident replacement plan for 2026 and revisiting 2027 targets.

Klein told lawmakers that UC expected to exceed 2025 enrollment targets and projected adding roughly 1,500 Resident FTE for 2026, but cautioned that “funding will likely not be available to continue to support enrollment growth and to replace nonresident students.” He recommended the Legislature adopt provisional budget language to prevent campuses that have reduced nonresident shares from increasing them above their 2024–25 levels while the state’s fiscal picture remains uncertain.

UC Chief Academic Officer Catherine Newman said the system had added more than 16,000 full‑time equivalent California undergraduates in the last five years and had exceeded the nonresident replacement targets during the compact period. Newman warned, however, that the university cannot continue to increase enrollment with less funding and said an 8% cut “will force us to decrease enrollment for the fall of 2026 admission cycle.”

Committee members discussed options including holding 2026 enrollment flat, reducing the 2027 target, or adopting the LAO’s provisional language to preserve progress already made while the budget picture clarifies.