Bay Area transit leaders warn of fiscal cliff, urge regional revenue measure

Alex Bockelman, who identified himself as a staffer at the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, told the SB 125 Transit Transformation Task Force that the Bay Area faces a ‘‘transit fiscal cliff’’ caused by long‑term declines in weekday commuting and consequent losses in fare and parking revenue.

Bockelman said overall transit ridership in the Bay Area remains about two‑thirds of pre‑COVID levels and that operators that rely heavily on farebox and parking revenue have been hit hardest. He told the task force that emergency federal and state infusions totaling more than $4 billion helped backfill losses in recent years, but those funds were not permanent.

‘‘This is simply a math problem,’’ Bockelman said, summarizing staff analysis that service cuts alone cannot close the gap. He told the task force that the Metropolitan Transportation Commission convened a select committee to evaluate a potential transportation revenue measure intended to avoid major service cuts, advance ‘‘transit transformation’’ and win voter support in Sacramento and at the ballot box. He noted a bill introduced by state Sens. Scott Wiener and Aaron Peskin Arreguín had cleared two committees this week to enable a regional revenue measure.

Bockelman framed the crisis as broader than mobility: reduced service would undercut the Bay Area’s climate goals and housing strategies. He said MTC analysis shows that if BART and other operators cut service drastically, the region could miss greenhouse‑gas reduction targets and that nearly 500,000 people already live in roughly 200,000 homes within a half‑mile of a BART station — a concentration planners expect to grow under Plan Bay Area 2050.

Public commenters at the task force echoed the call for new revenue sources. Dylan Fabris of San Francisco Transit Riders urged ‘‘renewing and expanding’’ programs such as cap‑and‑trade and keeping road‑use fees on the table as electric vehicles proliferate. Disability and senior advocates asked the task force to ensure any funding strategy protects paratransit and accessibility improvements, and Seamless Bay Area’s Adina Levin urged better linkage between service‑led planning and capital project choices.

Task force members discussed how a regional measure would fit into a layered funding approach that includes local, state and federal support. Staff emphasized that a regional ballot measure alone would likely be necessary but not sufficient: local operators would still need to identify efficiency gains and the state and federal governments would need to supply operating support for a durable solution.

The task force did not take a formal vote on a regional measure at the meeting. Members repeatedly urged that any measure be paired with concrete service‑level outcomes so voters can see how new revenues would translate to faster, more frequent and more reliable service.

The task force asked staff to return with further financial scenarios and outreach results to shape recommendations for what a regional or state funding package should include.

Ending: Bockelman and public commenters cast the challenge in both fiscal and policy terms: sustaining transit in the Bay Area will require new, ongoing revenue plus targeted investments aimed at service speed, frequency and accessibility.