Nevada advisory panel approves updated general‑fund forecasts, flags gaming fines and reporting issues

CARSON CITY, Nev. — The Technical Advisory Committee on Future State Revenues approved updated forecasts for selected general‑fund revenues and adjusted estimates of tax credits during its April 23, 2025 meeting, sending the figures on for consideration by the Economic Forum at its May 1 meeting.

The committee, which assists the Economic Forum under Nevada Revised Statutes 353.229, approved a revised forecast that reflects a number of timing and activity changes across nearly 200 nonmajor revenue lines. Michael Nakamoto, Chief Principal Deputy Fiscal Analyst with the Legislative Council Bureau’s Fiscal Analysis Division, presented the revisions and the staff consensus with the Governor’s Finance Office.

Why it matters: The committee’s figures feed the Economic Forum’s unrestricted general fund forecast, a key input to budget planning and the Legislature’s expectations about available state resources for the coming biennium.

Major drivers and notable changes

- Gaming penalties: Forecasts for gaming penalties increased for FY2025 after the Nevada Gaming Commission levied a roughly $10.5 million fine against Resorts World; committee materials count $11,000,000 for FY2025 (an increase of about $10,150,000 compared with the November forecast). Nakamoto noted a reported, but not yet official, additional potential fine against MGM of roughly $8.5 million was not included because the Gaming Commission had not completed action as of the meeting. “...the official action has to be taken by the gaming commission before the penalty actually comes due,” Nakamoto said.

- Advanced gaming license fees: The Gaming Control Board reduced forecasts for advanced license fees by about $300,000 per year after reporting no known large openings or license transfers in the upcoming biennium. Shelly Newell of the Gaming Control Board clarified that a full ownership change or new operation would trigger advanced license fees, but that the anticipated Mirage-to‑Hard Rock transaction would fall outside the current biennium: “But if it’s new ownership, yes, we would have the advance license fee…in this particular case, it doesn’t affect this forecast as it relates to the Mirage.”

- Department of Taxation IT conversion (“Mint”): Nakamoto described timing and reporting disruptions after the Department of Taxation’s switch to a new tax reporting system (Mint). The switch moved some monthly reporting earlier in the month and produced timing anomalies for taxes such as liquor, cigarette and other tobacco, prompting downward adjustments in several forecasts and leaving staff in ongoing data‑quality discussions with the Department of Taxation and the Governor’s Finance Office.

- Tourism‑sensitive taxes: Forecasts for several tourism‑linked taxes and fees were trimmed. The Transportation Network Company (TNC) excise tax (the “Uber/Lyft” tax) was forecast at about $46.5 million for FY2025 (up from FY2024 actuals), but forecasters expect some softening thereafter. The short‑term car rental fee was revised downward across the biennium after weak year‑to‑date receipts and a late remittance by a major taxpayer; staff said late payments should appear in the third quarter returns.

- Athletic commission fees and liquor tax: Athletic commission receipts (an 8% fee on admissions to unarmed combat events, with three‑quarters to the general fund) were revised down by roughly $1.5 million per year after fewer Vegas events posted year‑to‑date. Liquor tax and other tobacco tax forecasts were also lowered amid Mint reporting adjustments and softer consumption trends.

- Unclaimed property: The largest single unexpected movement was in unclaimed property receipts. Nakamoto said state treasurer data showed roughly $146 million in receipts to the unclaimed property account over a few days, prompting the Fiscal Analysis Division to raise its FY2025 forecast. When averaged with other forecasters’ numbers the net adjustment increased the FY2025 estimate for unclaimed property and contributed approximately $8.9 million to the net increase in “other revenue” compared with the November forecast.

Tax credits

The committee also approved updated forecasts for tax credits that reduce general‑fund revenue. Notable changes included a forecasted rise in transferable film tax credits tied to recent activity, including WrestleMania‑related production applications that staff estimated could generate roughly $4.2 million in credits realized in FY2026. Nakamoto summarized: “At the film office meeting … there was an application that was approved, for what is preliminarily going to be approximately $4,200,000 in transferable tax credits that will be issued.”

Other credit changes included modest upward adjustments for affordable‑housing transferable credits and continued scheduled credits for the Las Vegas baseball stadium (statutorily authorized in special session legislation). The net effect across the tax‑credit block produced larger revenue reductions (i.e., higher credits) compared with the November forecast.

Totals and next steps

After the tax‑credit adjustments, the panel’s totals for the nonmajor group it reviews were: FY2025 $736,413,620 (a 4.2% decrease from FY2024 actuals for the same revenue group), FY2026 $688,459,987, and FY2027 $687,390,584. Nakamoto said those figures will be submitted to the Economic Forum and that staff can request adjustments if the Gaming Commission finalizes additional fines at its meeting after the TAC session.

Committee action and votes

The committee took three formal actions by voice vote and approved each by consensus: approval of corrected minutes from October 30 and November 21, 2024; approval of the revised revenue forecast (with staff latitude to update figures if the Gaming Commission finalizes additional penalties); and approval of the revised tax‑credit forecasts. The motion to approve the revenue forecast was offered by Ms. Kaufman and seconded by Ms. Greenmeier. The tax‑credits motion was offered by Mr. Thorley and seconded by Ms. Kaufman. Votes were taken by voice; no roll‑call tallies were recorded in the meeting transcript.

What the committee did not do

Staff and committee members emphasized that one large reported MGM penalty was not included because the Gaming Commission had not taken formal action by the time of the TAC vote. Nakamoto said staff would bring any official action into the Economic Forum process if needed. The panel also noted ongoing uncertainty from the Department of Taxation’s Mint rollout, which staff and the Governor’s Finance Office will continue to monitor.

The forecast and credit estimates approved by the Technical Advisory Committee will be transmitted to the Economic Forum for its May 1, 2025 meeting in Carson City.