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City economist: Gross receipts tax shows mixed signals — retail weak, online sales not broken out
Summary
The City Economist told the council that gross receipts tax (GRT) receipts were mixed year‑to‑date, with a dip in retail but strength in construction and professional services; she said state reporting does not separately identify online sales, complicating local analysis.
City Economist Christine Burner briefed the Albuquerque City Council on April 21 on the city’s gross receipts tax performance, telling councilors that fiscal‑year 2025 year‑to‑date growth measured under the state’s methodology stood at about 2.6 percent through February, slightly above the 2.1 percent growth assumption built into the FY2025 city budget.
Burner said monthly data were mixed: January showed a 1.1 percent decline, while February rebounded with 4.7 percent growth over the prior year. Business‑sector growth excluding the state’s food and medical hold‑harmless categories was 3.7 percent in February and 1.3 percent year to date. Construction and professional, scientific and technical services were performing well, she said; retail had “struggled” throughout the fiscal year.
Councilors pressed Burner on the extent to which online sales — the sector many economists say has masked a shift away from brick‑and‑mortar retail — could be disaggregated from state distributions. Burner said the state lumps online sales into retail categories and does not provide a separate online sales breakdown without major system changes on the state side; she said efforts to obtain NAICS‑based reports or RP‑80 reports might give partial insight but would not capture all online transactions.
Councilors asked for follow‑up: Councilor Lewis asked for a sectoral breakdown showing each sector’s percent impact on overall city GRT. Councilor Pena urged city staff to press the state for a separate online sales breakout and to look for alternative data sources. Burner said the next UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research forecast meeting (May 2) and an S&P Global update would provide additional data points.
Burner cautioned that national forecasts show a range of possibilities — “growth recession” scenarios were in some baseline forecasts — and that city revenue models do not yet show a pronounced downturn, but the situation warrants continuing monitoring.
No formal council vote was taken on the update; councilors asked for follow‑up analyses on sector shares, online sales, and November‑to‑February trends.
