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Committee weighs 2020 census vs county 2024 estimates for population projections
Summary
Planners told the Taneytown committee that using the county's current population estimate alongside 2020 census/ACS data is necessary in the draft plan; the committee directed staff to add a disclaimer and to include the county's updated monthly estimate in projection tables.
Taneytown planning staff told the Comprehensive Plan Committee that the plan currently uses 2020 U.S. Census and American Community Survey (ACS) data for demographic, housing and economic detail, but county population estimates for 2024 differ significantly from 2020 counts.
Staff said the ACS supplies variable‑level demographic and economic detail that the county's more recent population estimate lacks. To avoid invalidating other sections of the plan, staff recommended keeping 2020 census/ACS figures for descriptive sections while adding a clear disclaimer where numbers differ and including the county's current estimate in the population projection table.
Committee members expressed concern that the county estimate pushes the town's projection toward numbers labeled "2040," and asked whether housing and infrastructure projections would remain accurate if the base population is updated. Staff replied that housing build‑out projections are based on future land use and zoning (capacity) rather than census counts, and that updating the projection table will change only that table; other demographic breakdowns would remain anchored to 2020 ACS detail with an explanatory note.
The committee directed staff to add the disclaimer and to populate the 2024 row in the population projection table using the county number once staff and committee agree which monthly estimate to use.
Ending: Staff will add a data‑disparity disclaimer, insert the county population number in the projection table, and return updated tables and explanatory text at the next meeting.
