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Economic advisory board presents mixed signals on tourism, housing and workforce
Summary
A Summit County Economic Development Advisory Board representative briefed the Kamas City Council on slowing visitor spending, uncertain seasonal J-1 labor arrivals, declining local population in some towns and persistent affordability pressures in housing and rents.
Jeff, a presenter from the Summit County Economic Development Advisory Board, told the Kamas City Council on Aug. 12 that the county is seeing slowing visitor spending and uncertainty in the seasonal labor pool that supports hospitality employers.
Jeff said international visitation and spending have dropped in some markets this year, and the county’s reliance on J-1 visa holders for seasonal work creates uncertainty because confirmation of arrivals was still unclear at the end of the summer. He said local counts of J-1 participants historically run near 1,700–2,000 and that if those workers do not arrive this winter, employers could face staffing shortfalls.
The presentation placed particular emphasis on housing affordability: the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s area median income (AMI) for Summit County is $168,600 for a family of four, and Jeff showed that typical home prices and mortgage assumptions put many housing products well above what a household at 80% AMI could afford. Using a model with 5% down and a 6.375% mortgage rate, Jeff said an 80% AMI buyer would need an approximate price of $440,000 to qualify—below most local listing prices.
Jeff also described data sources used for the briefing, including a mobile-phone–signal analytics product (Placer AI) for visitor flows and several local population models. He said different models (U.S. Census estimates, the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, and an internal LICAS developer forecast) diverge, with some showing Kamas-area population declines after 2022 while other nearby towns have modest gains.
Council members asked about how AMI differs from median household income; Jeff explained AMI is a HUD family-income metric used for housing programs and is calculated differently than median household income. Council members also asked whether county-level figures can be translated for municipal policy; Jeff recommended using the city’s median household income as an input to an AMI-based spreadsheet he has prepared so the city can set local targets aligned to its ordinance.
The presentation also covered earnings and cost-of-living: average earnings per job in local ZIP codes ranged in the mid-$70,000s and median household incomes varied across subareas, while a cost-of-living index measured the county at roughly 136.5 (U.S. = 100). Jeff said those combinations of relatively high housing costs and only moderate average earnings are a major driver of out-migration among younger families.
Jeff closed by noting demographic trends that affect labor supply: a decline in the working-age cohort since about 2022, continued growth in older cohorts (65+), and a projected modest net population decline over 10 years in his LICAS forecast. He urged the council to consider these dynamics in land-use and housing-policy decisions and offered to help the city adapt AMI-based targets to Kamas’s median household income.
The council followed with questions about getting city-level AMI-equivalent tables and the potential for deed-restricted units to influence market rents; Jeff noted deed-restricted supply in adjacent basins has contributed to downward pressure on some market rents.
Ending: The council did not take formal action on the presentation; the briefing concluded with an offer from Jeff to provide the spreadsheet and follow up on city-specific figures.
