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SFCTA reviews final Prop L strategic plan; revenue forecast cut 11% over 30 years
Summary
Staff presented a final Prop L strategic plan update that reduces the 30‑year revenue forecast by about 11% to roughly $1.95 billion, preserves near-term five‑year programming and rebalances later years; the transcript records a motion to adopt but does not include the recorded vote.
Staff presented a final update to the Prop L strategic plan on April 8 that reduces the 30-year revenue forecast and adjusts out-year programming while preserving near-term spending priorities.
Amelia Wally, presenting the final strategic plan, said voters approved the Prop L expenditure plan in November 2022 and that the strategic plan reconciles a 30-year revenue forecast with project cash-flow needs and debt assumptions. For the final plan, staff worked with consultants and city offices and reduced the 30-year revenue projection by roughly 11% to about $1.95 billion. Wally said that reduction translates to roughly $415 million less in year‑of‑expenditure dollars available across the 30-year period.
Wally summarized the policy approach: protect funding already committed in the first five-year prioritization programs (5 YPPs), sustain paratransit funding where possible, preserve funding for the Transbay (the “portal”) and BART core capacity programs where federal grants and other leveraging are in play, and fairly right‑size other program lines so projects have comparable finance costs as a share of their funding caps.
Key changes staff described: - Revenue forecast: lowered ~11% to approximately $1.95 billion over 30 years (about $415 million less in year‑of‑expenditure dollars compared with the baseline). - Near-term protections: funding approved in current 5 YPPs (first five years) was preserved to avoid disrupting projects currently advancing. - Portal: preserved at $300 million with slightly delayed cash flow to align federal grant leverage. - BART core capacity: programming reduced from $90 million to $85 million, with $35 million already allocated toward new trains. - Paratransit: preserved at roughly $13 million per year (plus escalation) through fiscal 2035 with modestly delayed cash flows. - Muni maintenance: programming reduced in years 9–20 (fiscal 2029–2040) to stay within the authority’s maximum annual debt-service constraint; programming increased beginning in year 41 such that over the full horizon the muni maintenance program increases by $23 million compared with the baseline.
Wally emphasized the plan remains financially constrained and that any debt issuance would require separate board approval. “We reduced revenues by 11% over this 30 year period to reflect the current economic picture,” she said.
The board received questions about project timelines and cash-flow effects. Anna LaForte, deputy director for policy and programming, explained that many current high expenditures stem from previously approved Prop K cash flows that carried into Prop L. Director Chang noted the Transbay (portal) schedule had been pushed out several years by TJPA and that one project timeline had been shifted accordingly.
Board action: a motion and second were recorded to adopt the final Prop L strategic plan, but the transcript available does not include the roll-call vote or a recorded tally. Staff said the final strategic plan and the five-year prioritization programs will be updated again in the 2027 cycle.
