City officials unveil new water-supply dashboard; warn Western reservoirs could hit emergency levels by late 2026

Corpus Christi Water on Monday unveiled a new public “water supply dashboard” designed to show daily lake and reservoir levels, the city’s mix of water sources and modeled projections of supply and demand.

The dashboard, presented by Drew Molly, chief operating officer for Corpus Christi Water, projects the city’s Western supply — Lake Corpus Christi and Choke Canyon combined — could fall to the Level 1 emergency threshold in October 2026 and to 10% of supply by November 2026 if dry conditions continue and only the currently-modeled new wells and pipeline operation assumptions are used.

“We have moved away from a La Niña weather pattern, and the Gulf is warmer than it typically has been,” Molly said during his briefing, summarizing recent discussions with the state climatologist and the National Weather Service. He added that inflows to Choke Canyon and Lake Corpus Christi have been “extremely low” and that 2024 inflows were among the driest on record.

Why it matters: The dashboard is meant to give residents and council members a single place to see how much water is available, where it is coming from (Mary Rhodes Pipeline, Nueces River/Western supplies, Lake Corpus Christi and planned groundwater wells) and how long those sources are expected to last under a range of assumptions. The city’s drought stages and any required restrictions are tied to Western supply percentages, so those reservoir levels shape mandatory conservation steps.

What the dashboard shows: For March 2025 the city reported roughly 96.2 million gallons per day in total raw and treated water throughput; about 59% of that month’s supply came from the Mary Rhodes Pipeline, 35% from the Nueces River and 6% from Lake Corpus Christi, Molly said. A year earlier the city relied more on the Nueces River (about 51%). The dashboard includes modeled additions of groundwater from new wells (phased in as 3 MGD increments over 2025) and assumes the Mary Rhodes Pipeline will operate primarily at its schedule 4 (roughly 70–79 MGD), with contingency for short schedule reductions.

Michael Pinkney, a water-availability modeler with Corróla Engineers, reviewed streamflow gauge records that underpin the projections. He showed decades of U.S. Geological Survey flow data for tributaries feeding Choke Canyon and Lake Corpus Christi and said annual inflows in recent years have been well below the long-term averages used in historical planning. “From 2008 to present, you have spent nearly every single year receiving less water than what has been in the historical average,” Pinkney said. He noted 2024 inflows were among the lowest seen at several gauges.

Council reaction and next steps: Council members asked for the dashboard to be made easier for the public to read and for a concise snapshot that answers the basic questions most residents ask — current percent of Western supply, days to next restriction level and what additional projects buy in days or months. Councilwoman Kalynn Paxton asked staff to produce a simple “but for” comparison showing how much longer the city’s supply would last with each new source (for example: what phase 4 of Mary Rhodes, the Nueces County wells, Formosa agreement, or other options add to the timeline). Molly and City Manager Peter Zanoni said staff will refine the public view and daily messaging and add Spanish-language materials.

Councilman Mark Scott and others asked for more raw data to be posted or linked to the public site (for example, the USGS gauge data) so independent reviewers and civic groups can validate the inputs. Molly said the city will publish source assumptions and a short list of modeling inputs on the dashboard and that new water projects will be added to the model once their outputs are firmed up.

What officials are doing: Molly and staff said the dashboard model currently includes the phased-in Nueces County groundwater wells (three 3-MGD steps in 2025) and the Mary Rhodes Pipeline schedule 4 pumping assumption; it does not include any speculative projects not yet under contract or permitted. Staff told council they are continuing negotiations and permit work for several additional short‑term and long‑term supplies, including agreements for interruptible Colorado River allocations and a water purchase arrangement that the city described as an “insurance policy” (Formosa) in case interruptible deliveries are not available.

Molly emphasized the sensitivity of the model to rainfall. “If we have even just average rain this next year, it is going to drastically improve what this model is showing us today,” he said.

Ending: City staff said they will improve the dashboard’s public snapshot, add links to raw source data, publish the modeling assumptions, provide regular (weekly) brief updates and produce a clear, plain-English and Spanish communications plan so residents and businesses understand current restrictions, progress on new supplies and how each new source delays the next emergency stage.