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PolicyLink presents national housing trends to St. Paul HRA; commissioners discuss tenant protections and financing
Summary
PolicyLink analyst Tran Huang reviewed national development and policy trends — falling multifamily starts, tenant-protection laws, and local government production strategies — and HRA commissioners discussed evaluation priorities, enforcement and financing tools such as revolving loan funds.
PolicyLink presented national housing development and policy trends to the St. Paul City Housing and Redevelopment Authority, outlining recent declines in multifamily starts, the rise of tenant-protection laws and a growing role for local governments in directly financing affordable housing.
Tran Huang, a housing policy analyst at PolicyLink, told commissioners the Joint Center for Housing Studies and other industry reports show multifamily construction fell in 2023 and that developers face higher interest rates, supply-chain and labor constraints. “Multifamily starts fell 14% to just under half a million units in 2023,” Huang said, summarizing national reports.
Huang described three policy areas gaining traction: tenant right-to-counsel, just-cause eviction protections and rent stabilization. She said jurisdictions are also experimenting with government-led production—examples cited included Montgomery County’s revolving loan fund model, Atlanta Urban Development Corporation using public land, and Seattle’s social housing initiative funded by an excess gains tax.
The presenter reviewed empirical research on whether tenant protections harm production, citing University of Minnesota analyses and long-term studies from New Jersey and Portland, Maine, that show mixed or limited impacts on construction rates after protections took effect. Huang cautioned that many studies examine macro development trends and stressed that policy evaluation should match a policy’s goals: protections should be measured by eviction and displacement outcomes, while production tools should be evaluated by housing units produced and cost per unit.
Commissioners asked about local implications and study design. Commissioner Yang said longer-term empirical evidence is needed to inform proposed city amendments to rent stabilization. Commissioner Buie asked about financing and whether public financing can replace expensive private capital; Huang pointed to revolving loan funds and public capital as tools to lower project costs and support mixed-income production.
Huang also flagged market concentration and landlord pricing tools: she noted the DOJ suit involving RealPage and warned of the effects of “financialization” on rents and supply.
No formal action was taken; the session was an informational staff report (SR 205-403). Commissioners expressed interest in partnering on a targeted housing policy evaluation that focuses on enforcement capacity and measuring each policy against its intended outcomes.
