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Board authorizes new forecasting method for school enrollment; Carolina Demography to provide annual projections

3020375 · April 15, 2025
AI-Generated Content: All content on this page was generated by AI to highlight key points from the meeting. For complete details and context, we recommend watching the full video. so we can fix them.

Summary

The board approved switching to a Carolina Demography forecasting methodology for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools to improve enrollment projections by accounting for births, migration, development and charter/private-school changes.

The Orange County Board of Commissioners authorized staff to use a new student-enrollment forecasting methodology produced by Carolina Demography to support school-capacity planning for Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools.

Kirk (staff) summarized weaknesses in the county—s prior projection approach, which relied principally on trend-based analysis and did not explicitly incorporate the impacts of new development, charter and private-school market-share changes, COVID-19 effects or changing birth trends. The board previously requested competitive proposals and heard presentations by two firms; the SApFOTEC (school adequate public…

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