Experts brief supervisors on likely damage if 1906-style quake struck today; estimate up to $120 billion in building losses

City-appointed and regional earthquake professionals told the Board of Supervisors that a repeat of the 1906 earthquake or a modern magnitude-7.9 San Andreas rupture would cause severe damage across the Bay Area, displace hundreds of thousands of households, and inflict tens of billions of dollars in building losses.

The presenters summarized findings from a multi-scenario analysis using HAZUS loss-estimation software and improved local building inventories. Key figures presented to the board included an estimate of about 10,000 damaged commercial buildings across the region; nearly a quarter-million displaced households; nighttime casualty estimates as many as 1,800 fatalities and daytime estimates as high as 3,400; and direct building losses across Bay Area counties totaling roughly $120 billion for a worst-case large event. Presenters also noted that accounting for secondary effects such as fires, utilities and transportation disruption would raise total losses…