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Experts present 1906 repeat scenarios, warn Bay Area could face extensive damage and displacement
Summary
A technical presentation at the Board of Supervisors meeting outlined modeled ground motions for the 1906 earthquake and a magnitude 7.9 San Andreas scenario, estimating tens of thousands of displaced households and tens of billions in building losses across the Bay Area.
A presentation at the Jan. 5 Board of Supervisors session laid out technical findings from recent modeling of a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and a separate M 7.9 scenario on the San Andreas Fault.
The presenter (identified in the meeting transcript as an Earthquake Professional) summarized the results of a comprehensive analysis of historical and modeled ground motions, using HAZUS and other seismic simulation tools. The study estimated large regional losses: for example, the presenter reported an estimated 10,000 damaged commercial buildings and nearly a quarter‑million displaced households across the Bay Area under the modeled scenarios. Casualty estimates in the presentation ranged from roughly 1,800 deaths in a nighttime event to up to 3,400 deaths in a daytime event, with total direct building losses for the 19‑county bay region on the order of $120 billion; including secondary losses from fire, utilities and transportation, the presenter said total losses could exceed $150 billion.
The presenter described especially vulnerable building types: non‑ductile concrete buildings built prior to modern codes and soft‑story residential buildings (structures with open ground floors such as garages). The discussion emphasized the importance of preparedness, targeted mitigation for the most collapse‑prone buildings, and investments to ensure hospitals, fire stations and communications centers remain operational after a major quake. The speaker recommended a three‑part agenda: developing a culture of preparedness, strategic mitigation investments, and ensuring sufficient recovery resources.
Why it matters: The presenter said a repeat of a 1906‑scale event would cause substantial displacement and economic loss across the Bay Area and urged coordinated regional planning, targeted retrofits for the most at‑risk buildings, and advocacy for state and federal resources.
What was not decided: The presentation was informational; no board vote or formal action followed the technical briefing. The transcript does not list the presenter’s name; comments and recommendations were offered for the board’s consideration and possible follow‑up by staff and committees.
