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Retail market analysis finds low vacancy, flags Cinemark site; city to pursue broker and targeted marketing
Summary
Cosmont Companies presented a shopping‑center analysis that found low vacancy overall but identified notable vacancies (including an 85,000‑sq‑ft Cinemark theater in escrow). Staff proposed a one‑stop business start‑up support, procurement of a broker for retail recruitment and targeted marketing at industry conferences.
The Lake Forest City Council received the final report of a year‑long shopping‑center analysis on April 15 from Ken Herro of the Cosmont Companies and economic development staff. The report assessed 18 designated centers, consumer patterns, vacancy and ownership status and recommended a set of economic‑development strategies focused on retention, recruitment and selective redevelopment.
Cosmont reported an overall low vacancy rate in the city: CoStar data showed about 2.8% vacancy at the end of 2024, though Cosmont’s field reconciliation raised that figure to about 6.6% when known vacant boxes (including larger spaces the data provider had not yet classified) were added. The firm identified several notable vacancies and near‑term opportunities:
- The former Cinemark movie‑theater box (about 85,000 square feet) was described as being in escrow and attracting developer interest. Herro said the market response to that space had been ‘‘positive’’ and described it as an important redevelopment opportunity. - Several 99¢‑store boxes and a CVS space were noted; some have since been leased or repurposed, Cosmont said in its reconciliation of data sources.
Cosmont recommended that the city focus on business retention and attraction, use its mixed‑use overlay where appropriate, and consider value‑capture zoning and targeted incentives for strategic centers. Specific staff next steps described by Adrian Grijalva, economic development manager, include creating a one‑stop business startup support program; procuring a retail broker to assist with recruitment and redevelopment of prioritized centers; and preparing marketing materials and a conference presence (staff said they plan to attend a May 2025 industry conference).
Councilmembers asked about development feasibility, tariffs and how to gather testimony from businesses that recently located in the city. Cosmont recommended surveying new tenants and attending industry conferences to maintain relationships with brokers and retailers.
Public comment included praise for the report and local examples: a resident noted increased activity at a new burger restaurant on El Toro Road and pressed the council to address boarded storefronts and local landlord maintenance. Cosmont and staff acknowledged that the marketplace is dynamic and recommended quarterly monitoring of vacancies and continued outreach to landlords and brokers.
Why it matters: City staff will use the study to guide targeted recruitment and retention work, broker procurement and marketing. The Cinemark vacancy, if redeveloped, could materially change the retail mix in the affected center.
What’s next: Staff will return with implementation steps and budget considerations to support broker procurement, marketing, and one‑stop business services; Cosmont advised ongoing monitoring and relationship building with owners and brokers.
