Buncombe County projects $15–25M revenue shortfall after Tropical Storm Helene; staff propose midyear cuts and 4% school reduction

Buncombe County finance and budget staff told elected leaders that Tropical Storm Helene sharply reduced near-term local revenues and warned the county faces a possible $15 million to $25 million gap in fiscal year 2025 if conditions do not improve.

The short-term revenue hit stems from storm-related damage, higher local unemployment and a collapse in tourist-driven taxes. County Budget Director John Hudson and budget analyst Jay Shee presented the office’s analysis at a joint meeting with the county and both school boards.

Key figures and causes

- Projected revenue shortfall: county staff estimated a range of $15 million to $25 million in decreased revenues for FY 2025. - Occupancy tax (tourism): “On a year to date basis, occupancy tax collections are down 35%, which equates to $5,900,000,” Jay Shee said during his presentation, describing steep declines after the late-September storm. - Sales tax: year-to-date sales tax distributions were down about 7% (roughly $1.0 million) compared with the prior year, with October collections sharply lower; staff projected sales tax could fall $3.5–7.5 million below budget, depending on recovery patterns. - Property tax: property collections were at 93.52% at the time of the meeting, 0.9 percentage points behind the same time in the prior year. The county tax assessor is conducting damage assessments; staff cautioned that damage to thousands of residences and businesses will reduce future property-base growth.

Why this matters: property tax and county sales tax together fund roughly 76% of the general fund’s unrestricted revenues. A sustained revenue shortfall of the magnitude discussed would force midyear cuts, an…