State economists: corrections and public defense forecasts carry upside risk; youth custody beds steady near 380

The Office of Economic Analysis on Thursday presented its April forecasts for the Department of Corrections, the Oregon Youth Authority and the Public Defense Commission, telling the Public Safety Committee that adult custody and intake projections are expected to increase over the forecast horizon but carry an asymmetric risk of being higher than projected.

The forecasts matter because they feed the agencies' budget requests and the state's budget process, and a larger-than-expected rise in intakes or caseloads would increase costs for prison and juvenile facility capacity as well as for public defense, speakers said.

Michael Kennedy, with the Office of Economic Analysis, said the office issues forecasts each April and October and that the adult corrections and youth corrections forecasts project 10 years monthly, while the public defense forecast covers three biennia for budgeting and planning. "All three statutes that authorize us to or direct us to produce these forecasts also direct the three respective agencies to use these forecasts for…