Commission reviews AUAR scoping for 390-acre Southwest Area; traffic analysis will study school scenario

Director Goodwin and other city staff presented an informational scoping document on Oct. 16 for an Alternative Urban Area-Wide Review (AUAR) covering roughly 390 acres in the city’s Southwest Area. The AUAR process will analyze multiple development scenarios for land recently rezoned following a comprehensive plan amendment approved by City Council on Sept. 2.

Director Goodwin told the commission that the AUAR process has three steps: a scoping document, a draft AUAR and a final AUAR. The scoping document identifies topics to be studied in the full AUAR, including land use scenarios, environmental impacts and traffic. “An AUAR is intended to study scenarios,” Goodwin said; staff will analyze a scenario based on existing underlying land-use designations and a second, more intense scenario that follows the recently approved comprehensive plan amendment. A subvariant of the intense scenario (scenario 2b) models a potential school site of roughly 29 acres.

Staff emphasized that the AUAR is an informational, planning and environmental review document rather than a site-specific approval. The scoping document has been published for public comment; staff said the 30-day public comment period will run through Nov. 20, 2025 and that staff intends to present the scoping document to City Council at its first December meeting, at which time the council may order the AUAR. The AUAR will include a traffic analysis that staff and the city consultant (WSB) expect to be the most consequential part of the study because the school scenario would produce different traffic patterns.

Goodwin described the AUAR area as “a little over 390 acres” and said the process will estimate a range of potential housing units and commercial square footage under the studied scenarios; the scoping document identifies the data sources and analyses to be used. Staff said the draft AUAR will take a couple of months to prepare after comments are received, followed by a 30-day review period and responses to comments before a final AUAR is published.

Commissioner Calusa thanked staff for the presentation and transparency. Commissioners indicated informal concurrence with the scoping scenarios; because the item was informational, no formal vote was required. Staff said the AUAR materials will be posted under the city’s public notices page and that the document will be distributed to multiple public agencies for review.