Get Full Government Meeting Transcripts, Videos, & Alerts Forever!
Get email alerts on the Enrollment Projection topic
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Zonda forecast: Alvin ISD expects continued growth, projects about 585-student increase in coming year
Summary
A Zonda Demographics presentation to the Alvin ISD board projected continued enrollment growth driven by new housing activity and a long-term yield of roughly 0.5 students per new home; Zonda forecasted about 585 students of growth this forecast cycle and projected approximately 36,000 students in 10 years.
Rocky Gardner of Zonda Demographics told the Alvin ISD Board of Trustees that the district should expect continued enrollment growth over the next decade, tied largely to ongoing residential development in and around Alvin.
Gardner said the data he presented are based on fourth-quarter information collected through December. He reported strong housing activity in the greater Houston market — about 30,000 new homes per year in the metro area — and said Alvin’s starts and closings have remained steady, with roughly 1,500–1,700 home closings in the trailing 12 months. Gardner said the district had 3,600 vacant developed lots (VDLs) and nearly 17,000 “futures” (lots in earlier stages), and noted about 722 lots delivered during the fourth quarter.
On student yield from new housing, Gardner said a long-term yield of about 0.5 students per home (five students per 10 homes) remains a planning assumption; for the current forecast he projected a growth of roughly 585 students (compared with a 342-student forecast in the prior cycle). He also ran a scenario showing a lower cohort yield of about 0.31, which would reduce next year’s growth to around 358 students if that lower yield persisted.
Gardner flagged that cohort yields have shifted since the pre‑COVID period, with some decline in yields from new housing and a temporary drop in realized enrollment relative to forecast in the prior year. He also cautioned that high interest rates and recent economic factors have affected housing behavior: starts have been relatively close to closings in recent quarters, and families are delaying moves in some cases.
By his forecasts, the district could reach about 33,000 students in five years and about 36,000 in 10 years under his preferred scenario. Gardner told trustees a few campuses are currently over capacity and that the district will need to monitor enrollment by campus as new subdivisions deliver lots and homes.
Gardner and board members discussed vacancy and lot terminology; Gardner defined VDLs as vacant developed lots ready for building and explained how “futures” convert to VDLs as development progresses. He also noted Milton‑area submarket differences in yields and emphasized that the district’s next quarter data (first quarter) could change projections.
No formal vote was taken; the presentation provided data for planning and enrollment modeling.
