Zions Bank economist warns tariffs and policy shifts raise uncertainty; advises budget caution for cities

Robert Spendlove, senior economist at Zions Bank, told the Sandy City Council on April 1 that upcoming reciprocal tariffs and broad federal policy shifts are raising uncertainty and increasing the probability of an economic downturn, though he did not make recession his baseline projection.

Spendlove said the immediate unknown is the scope of tariffs the federal administration might impose; he summarized options under consideration as a flat across‑the‑board tariff, a country‑grouping approach, or a granular list of tariffs applied by product line. “We don't really have a lot of certainty or a lot of understanding about exactly how this is going to move forward,” he said, adding that higher tariffs would raise the U.S. average tariff to levels not seen since the mid‑20th century.

Why it matters: tariffs, large fiscal changes and deregulation all work together to change prices, trade relationships and business expectations. That mix affects household purchasing power, local retail sales (a major source of…