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Demographer: Tempe Union enrollment likely to decline for several more years
Summary
Applied Economics demographer Rick Brammer told the Tempe Union High School District governing board that district enrollment has fallen since 2020, that birth-rate and choice programs are reducing future cohorts, and that planners should expect several more years of decline absent a change in 'service rate.'
Rick Brammer of Applied Economics told the Tempe Union High School District governing board during a study session that the district has lost roughly 1,500 students since 2020 and is likely to see declining enrollment for several more years.
Brammer said total enrollment this year was down about 300 students from the prior year and that the district's cumulative loss since 2020 is "about 1,500 students," a decline larger than the loss in the entire prior decade. "By my calculations, we have 6 or 7 more years of of decline," he said.
The numbers matter because the district uses enrollment to set staffing, budgets and facilities plans. Brammer said two factors are driving the change: a smaller high-school-age population and increasing use of choice programs. He told the board that the…
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