Minnesota State trustees hear wide-ranging briefing on enrollment trends, recruitment and retention

Trustees and system leaders heard a two‑part presentation March 20 on trends shaping higher education, including demographic projections, recruitment strategies used by large online providers, and how colleges are using data analytics and AI to identify and retain students.

Dawn (presenter) and Liz, members of the consulting team brought back for the second session, described national enrollment shifts and system implications. Liz summarized new projections from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), saying Minnesota faces a projected 12% decline in high‑school graduates through 2041 and the Midwest is forecast to decline by about 16%.

“Because right now, we have a pool this big, and it's just going to get smaller,” Liz said, arguing campuses should refine recruitment and retention strategies to match a smaller, changing applicant pool. She highlighted a rise in multiracial and Hispanic graduates and a projected 26% drop in the non‑Hispanic white cohort through 2041.

Presenters pointed to Grand Canyon University (GCU) as an example of a provider that has dramatically increased enrollment by pairing aggressive, data‑driven recruiting with strong student funneling and retention tactics. The consultants said GCU targets high‑ROI markets, runs detailed outreach (including flying prospective students in for tours) and uses market analysis and AI to identify promising prospects.

A broader theme was use of analytics and AI to support student retention. Consultants described models that combine academic performance, engagement data (building access swipes, class attendance, online activity) and sentiment analysis of public social posts and reviews to identify students at risk of dropping out and to target timely interventions.

“There's a lot of data; the question is how you translate it into actionable insight at scale,” said a system official. Trustees asked for system‑specific retention rates and comparisons between in‑person and online student retention. Presenters replied that rates vary by institution and that the consultants’ models aim to provide early‑warning indicators so campuses can intervene earlier.

Trustees also raised the issue of scale and mission. Trustee Grubak emphasized that students need to feel a sense of belonging and connection to stay: “They need to feel like they belong… you keep them by they feel engaged in the college life or in the academics.” Presenters agreed retention requires both data and relationship building.

The session also included a cybersecurity overview from Randy Romas, who warned trustees that higher‑education institutions and their vendors are targeted by organized cybercrime that monetizes stolen personal and financial data. Romas described a “black market economy” in which stolen datasets are profiled with AI to find people who can authorize transfers and said breaches can go undetected for months.

“We're up against actors that build business models like ours,” Romas said. “They're after data they can monetize. They're after access.” He urged disciplined, regular risk assessments, vendor-supply‑chain scrutiny, consistent standards across campuses and ongoing testing and monitoring.

Trustees asked how Minnesota State is assessing risk; staff said a closed session later that day would include further discussion and the system’s annual security update would address many of the issues raised.

Presenters and trustees emphasized that the system must translate data into shared strategies and scale practices that fit the system’s public mission and budgets rather than copy private recruitment tactics wholesale. The trustees asked staff to return with retention and recruitment metrics for Minnesota State campuses and asked for follow‑up on how AI and analytics will be governed and deployed systemwide.