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District staff recommends external demographic refresh; board directs procurement to begin
Summary
Staff reviewed the district's annual enrollment-projection methodology and recommended engaging an external demographer for a full refresh; the board asked staff to start procurement to refresh demographic projections ahead of major planning decisions.
District enrollment and demographic staff reviewed the Salt Lake City School District's projection methodology at the Feb. 8 study session and recommended a full external refresh by an outside demography firm to provide a K'12 outlook to inform boundary, capacity and program planning.
Staff described the district's internal method: projections use average daily membership (ADM) as the funding-based baseline, cohort survival rates over three- and five-year spans and school-specific adjustments for transition years and boundary changes. Staff noted internal projections typically track reasonably well but are sensitive to boundary changes, magnet program enrollments and open-enrollment flows; external demographers use different baselines (October 1 counts, geocoded birth and housing data) which can produce variation useful for planning.
Why it matters: the board will soon face major decisions that rely on population trends — including configuration and potential boundary work highlighted elsewhere in the meeting and long-range capital plans. An external refresh would help validate internal estimates and provide geospatial analysis useful for feeder- and boundary-level planning.
Recommendation and board direction: staff said the last comprehensive refresh (applied economics) was completed in 2021 and recommended a new external refresh in October 2025 for best accuracy; a board member asked staff to begin procurement sooner. The board gave direction for district staff (through the superintendent and business office) to start the procurement process to engage an external firm to perform a full demographic refresh, prioritizing a K'12 scope and a methodology that can analyze secondary-level attrition and patterns the district's internal model finds hard to measure.
Staff noted common projection challenges: kindergarten projection volatility (birth rates are an imperfect local predictor because of mobility and births at urban hospitals), transition-year variation after closures and special enrollment factors (magnets, DLI, charter moves). The external firm will provide an independent comparison and geospatial modeling to test scenarios for boundary or facility planning.
