LCRA: Highland Lakes drier than last year; Arbuckle reservoir full and may be dispatched this summer

Kelly (LCRA staff) told the board on March 26 that drought conditions across Texas have worsened compared with 2024 and that the entirety of the LCRA basin is experiencing at least some level of dryness or drought.

Kelly reported that about 85% of Texas was in some level of drought as of the most recent monitor, with 13.7% of the state in "exceptional drought," concentrated near the Austin–San Antonio area. For the LCRA basin, February inflow was a little over 8,000 acre‑feet, about 10.6% of the long‑term average for February. Combined storage in Lakes Buchanan and Travis was roughly 1,010,000 acre‑feet on March 1 and measured about 983,278 acre‑feet the morning of the meeting.

Because combined storage was below 1,300,000 acre‑feet on March 1, staff reported that "interruptible stored water" will not be available for the 2025 season for Gulf Coast, Lakeside and Pierce Ranch irrigation customers. Under the water‑management plan guidelines, Garwood retains its senior water right but staff said Garwood will be limited to 18,100 acre‑feet of interruptible stored water this year. Kelly said the LCRA has entered stage 2 of its drought‑contingency plan based on the inflows test and that firm customers were notified; the primary practical effect staff cited is a return to once‑a‑week outdoor watering for customers subject to the stage 2 requirements.

Kelly also reported that Arbuckle reservoir reached full pool at the end of February and is undergoing instrument testing while LCRA staff confirm performance. If tests confirm operational readiness, staff said Arbuckle could be used as part of the system as soon as this summer. Staff described Arbuckle as adding roughly 90,000 acre‑feet to the supply equation when viewed as part of the system of river flows, storage and water rights, while noting the reservoir physically holds a smaller amount and turns over multiple times per year. Staff said Arbuckle would allow quicker dispatch of water to lower‑basin industrial customers and provide additional flexibility for meeting environmental‑flow obligations without making distant releases from the Highland Lakes.

Projections presented at the meeting showed Lake Travis at 637.12 feet mean sea level on March 1 and 636.21 the morning of the meeting, with a range of future outcomes depending on spring rainfall; continued dry conditions could push levels into the low 630s by September, while above‑average rains could raise levels into the 650s. The Climate Prediction Center outlook at the time anticipated a shift toward ENSO neutral in April but forecast average to below‑normal precipitation for March–May and warmer‑than‑normal temperatures.

Board members asked questions about dispatch timing, throughput and how Arbuckle will be modeled in the water‑management plan update. Staff said the reservoir's modeled "throughput" assumed 90,000 acre‑feet available in the system; the physical storage number given in discussion was 40,000 acre‑feet with the reservoir turning over more than twice, producing system throughput near 90,000 acre‑feet in modeling scenarios.

No formal vote was required to report basin conditions. The board and staff discussed next steps for incorporating Arbuckle into the water‑management plan update and continuing testing.

Ending: Staff said they will continue instrument testing at Arbuckle and will include the reservoir in water‑management planning meetings that were scheduled to begin the next day.