Sumner CFO: State revenue forecast dips; district projects modest enrollment growth

Chief Financial Officer Brian Bridal updated the Sumner School District Board of Directors on March 19 on the district's budget outlook, telling the board the Washington state revenue forecast for the next biennium is down by "just under $500,000,000" compared with November and that the legislature's actions this spring will determine the district's final funding. Bridal also said the district's enrollment projection for 2025–26 is roughly 10,050 average annual full‑time equivalent students.

Bridal said the statewide revenue revision reduces the November forecast by about $479 million, a change he described as "about seven‑tenths of 1 percent" of the state's biannual revenue pool. He warned that the long budget session could extend past the planned April 27 adjournment if lawmakers have not reached agreements, and that final details and agency guidance sometimes arrive in May.

The update matters because roughly three‑quarters of the district's revenue comes from the state, Bridal said, and state decisions on material, supplies and operating costs (MSOCs), special education and other components will materially affect the Sumner budget. "We get most of the money from our students from the state. Remember, about 75% of our money comes from the state," Bridal said.

Bridal summarized the key legislative proposals then still active in the Senate. He said Senate Bill 5192 had been reduced from an original ask near $300 million to roughly $160 million in the current language and — as written at the time of the presentation — would increase MSOC allocations by about $77.49 per student annually and include a smoothing mechanism averaging three years of enrollment for allocation purposes. He also described language that would require using the state's implicit price deflator (IPD) for MSOC adjustments rather than a separately set percentage.

On special education, Bridal said Senate Bill 5263 had been pared back from an original $1.65 billion ask to roughly $554 million in the current language. "It would eliminate the 16% cap on special education funding," he said, and the bill as drafted would merge the existing tiered multipliers into a single multiplier near 1.32, representing about a 20% increase for special‑education funding under that draft.

Bridal described how those bills — if they survive and reach final agreement — would be implemented unevenly and could change in amendment. He noted transportation funding bills were dead at that point in the session. He also summarized a range of deficit estimates in the public record, noting different analyses placed the state's two‑year budget gap between roughly $6.7 billion and $16 billion depending on assumptions.

On enrollment, Bridal described the district's cohort‑advancement method used to project student counts and said Sumner is "just over 10,000" in current average annual FTE and projecting about 10,050 for next year. He explained the district averages multiple methods (10‑year historic averages, weighted recent years, and demographer studies) and looks for a middle ground.

Bridal also gave a brief rundown of federal revenue in the district's recent budgets: federal funds made up about 4% of revenue (roughly $7.4 million), with the largest federal shares going to food services (just under 40% of the federal total), special education (about 30%) and Title programs (a little under 20%). He reminded the board ESSER stimulus funds were one‑time federal dollars.

Board members asked clarifying questions about cohort size differences between grade bands and how smoothing in state proposals could affect a growing district. Bridal reiterated timeline items the district must meet: a budget to the local Educational Service District by July 10 (on the required F‑195 form) and board adoption of the district budget by Aug. 31.

The board did not take a formal budget vote at the March 19 meeting; Bridal's presentation was an informational update and additional budget materials and the updated budget calendar are in the board packet. The board's next regular meeting is scheduled for April 16.