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District demographer: lower birth rates and falling kindergarten capture rate will shrink Wenatchee enrollment
Summary
A consultant told the Wenatchee School District board March 25 that declining birth counts and a lower kindergarten capture rate are expected to reduce resident student enrollment by about 1.5% next year and roughly 11% by 2029, and she described the data and methods behind the district's five‑ to seven‑year forecast.
A demographic presentation to the Wenatchee School District board on March 25 warned that lower birth rates and a falling kindergarten capture rate are forecast to shrink the district’s resident student population over the coming years.
Marcy Horner, a consultant with MGT who presented the analysis, said the forecast uses student data provided by the district (snapshot dated Oct. 1, 2024), historical trends, birth counts from the Washington State Department of Health and residential development research. “Resident student population is expected to decline just, by 1.5% next year. Projections indicate a total loss of 11% in, by 2029,” Horner said.
Horner showed the underlying drivers: a lower kindergarten capture rate (she cited a recent observed capture rate near 76%, down from prior years…
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