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Eugene growth monitoring: population revisions and slowing job forecasts cited ahead of UGS work
Summary
Staff told the Envision Eugene technical advisory committee that Portland State University revised its population estimates downward for 2023, the county and state forecasts project slower growth, and the city will use updated forecasts in upcoming urban growth strategy and housing‑need work.
EUGENE, Ore. — City planners told the Envision Eugene technical advisory committee on March 20 that recent revisions to population estimates and slower job forecasts will inform the city’s upcoming urban growth strategy (UGS) and housing‑need analyses.
Heather O'Donnell, senior planner, and other staff explained that Portland State University (PSU) issues preliminary population estimates and then revises them as new IRS tax‑return migration data and other inputs become available. "They end up kind of, going back and revising the population estimates," O'Donnell said, noting that the 2023 certified estimate was revised downward in 2024 and that such revisions are common.
Staff told the committee that Eugene's population growth has hovered around 1 percent per year over the monitoring period and that, cumulatively since 2012, the city added roughly 18,820 people. The most recent revision reduced the net addition through 2024 by 84 people relative to the prior reported total, staff said.
The group also discussed employment forecasts. The Oregon Employment Department's 10‑year forecast for Lane County projects slower job growth than prior forecasts: staff presented a county projection of about 0.7 percent annual job growth in the new data, down from 1.2 percent in the 2021 forecast. For Eugene specifically, staff reported an actual historical jobs growth rate near 1.5 percent through 2022 while newer forecasts have trended lower.
Other observations from the presentation included:
- PSU issues preliminary regional forecasts and then seeks city input via a development‑trend survey; the final certified regional forecast (for the multi‑decade planning horizon) was expected to be finalized by June 30, 2025.
- Lane County's population trend reflects "natural loss" (deaths outnumbering births) and therefore relies on net migration for growth; staff said Lane County's older age profile drives some of that dynamic.
- The county unemployment rate improved from 4.6 percent to 4.1 percent between the most recent comparable Decembers and remains well below the COVID peak of 13.8 percent in April 2020.
- Average annual wages for people working in Lane County rose roughly 16 percent over the monitoring period after adjusting for inflation, staff reported.
Committee members asked about forecast uncertainty. Howard, a retired environmental scientist, and other members urged that the report acknowledge uncertainty in forecasting models — including immigration and university enrollment assumptions — and O'Donnell agreed that forecasts include migration assumptions and that the city can add clarifying text.
Staff said they will continue to monitor the PSU and Oregon Employment Department updates and that the forthcoming UGS discussions this summer will walk the committee through the new 2025 allocated housing need, potential housing density methodology revisions and the next steps for employment efficiency measures. The city plans further outreach and expects to bring methodology refinements and census‑related changes to the committee later this year.
