Zonda projects CSISD enrollment to rise to mid‑14,000s over decade; several elementary campuses already above capacity

Paul Cash of Zonda Demographics presented a district demographic and housing update to the College Station ISD Board of Trustees at the March 18 workshop, laying out active subdivisions, housing‑market trends, student yields and a multi‑year enrollment forecast.

Cash said the district has 26 active subdivisions and six future subdivisions; the greatest new‑home activity is in the southeastern part of the district, within attendance zones for Pebble Creek and Forest Ridge elementary schools. He reported that existing single‑family home prices increased this year — the dataset showed average existing home prices above average new‑home prices — and that sales volume slowed as prices rose. Cash said those housing trends, combined with current interest‑rate conditions, influence the district’s near‑term enrollment growth.

Zonda’s yield analysis showed variation by development. For example, Southern Pointe (Pebble Creek attendance zone) has roughly 2,000 lots of which about 660 are occupied; current student yield there is about 0.397 students per occupied home (about 4 students for every 10 occupied homes). Midtown Reserve (Southwood Valley zone), a D.R. Horton development, has a lower student yield (about 0.272). Multifamily developments average roughly 0.122 students per unit (about 1.2 students per 10 units); manufactured homes show higher yields (about 0.39 students per home). Cash noted student housing contributes very little yield.

District‑level figures in the presentation show total enrollment decreased by 48 students compared with the prior year; much of that shift is explained by normal cohort size changes (Zonda compared last year’s 12th‑grade cohort with this year’s kindergarten cohort). The presentation projected district enrollment could reach more than 14,500 by about 2033 under current assumptions.

Cash and trustees discussed capacity pressure. Zonda’s campus projections showed Pebble Creek, Southwood Valley and Spring Creek elementary schools at about 110% capacity and projected to remain above 110% in coming years. Among intermediate schools, Pecan Trail is approaching the 85% threshold and Oakwood Intermediate is projected to reach about 85% by 2029–30. Wellborn Middle was near 85%; A&M Consolidated and College Station High School were at or around capacity. Cash said the district will likely need rezoning to address elementary, intermediate and middle school capacity pressures and that Zonda and district staff plan to present rezoning scenarios and public outreach at a June meeting. Staff indicated a target for any rezoning approval timeline would allow implementation for the 2026–27 school year, with board action expected in November 2026 to provide staffing and scheduling lead time.

Cash acknowledged a mislabeled chart in the slide deck showing births and kindergarten enrollment; he and trustees corrected the column labels during the presentation and said the underlying ratios remain valid. Trustees asked whether non‑public schooling or other choices were affecting kindergarten numbers; Cash said those factors can influence middle and high school mobility but that births‑to‑kindergarten ratios have been the district’s reliable baseline for projections.

The workshop included questions from trustees about the drivers of declining sales and rising prices, the role of interest rates and the long‑term implications of older neighborhoods with lower turnover. Zonda’s analysis emphasizes that land supply, home prices and the pace of new construction will determine where new students are generated over the next decade.