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Demographer: College Station ISD growth softens; district to consider rezoning for 2026–27 school year
Summary
Zonda Demographics presented a March 18 update showing slower home sales, rising existing‑home prices, and uneven student yields across new subdivisions. Staff said they will return in June with rezoning scenarios aimed at elementary, intermediate and middle schools for possible adoption for the 2026–27 year.
Paul Cash of Zonda Demographics presented the district’s demographic update at the March 18 meeting, reviewing housing, subdivision activity and student‑yield trends that inform enrollment forecasts and capacity planning.
Key takeaways: Cash reported 26 active single‑family subdivisions in the district and six future subdivisions; he highlighted stronger development activity in the southeastern part of the district (Pebble Creek and Forest Ridge attendance zones). Zonda’s slides showed that existing home prices have increased substantially — Cash said average existing home prices rose to roughly $460,000 while average new home prices were near $400,000 — and that sales volume has slowed as prices rose.
Student yields and housing type: Zonda presented student‑yield figures by neighborhood. Cash cited examples: Southern Point (Pebble Creek attendance zone) produced a current student yield of about 0.397 students per occupied home (roughly four students per 10 occupied homes). Midtown Reserve (Southwood Valley zone) showed a lower yield of approximately 0.272 (about 2.7 students per 10 occupied homes). Multifamily developments in the district average about 0.122 students per unit (1.2 students per 10 units), while manufactured homes yield about 0.39 students per unit.
Enrollment and projections: Cash said district enrollment decreased by 48 students year‑over‑year in the current reporting period and noted that kindergarten enrollment (952 this year) compared with the prior year’s 12th‑grade cohort is a factor in the net change. Using birth‑to‑kindergarten ratios and housing activity, Zonda projected district enrollment will rise to more than 14,600 in roughly 10 years (district presentation slide; date projection referenced as a 10‑year horizon from 2025).
Capacity concerns and next steps: Cash’s campus‑level slides flagged capacity pressure at several schools. Pebble Creek, Southwood Valley and Spring Creek elementary schools were shown at or above 100% capacity and projected to remain overcapacity; Pecan Trail intermediate was approaching an 85% threshold; Wellborn Middle is near 85%. Cash and district staff described the plan to return to the board in June with rezoning scenarios for elementary, intermediate and middle school boundaries and to seek board action in November so changes could be implemented for the 2026–27 school year. Superintendent Tim Harkrider emphasized the need to release scenarios early enough to allow community feedback, staffing decisions and grandfathering considerations.
Questions from trustees focused on the role of the housing market and interest rates in near‑term enrollment trends, whether families are choosing alternatives to public schools, and how older neighborhoods’ household compositions factor into long‑term yield. Cash said the falloff in home sales and the higher interest rate environment are key drivers slowing district growth in the near term, but he flagged active subdivision lots and multifamily pipeline as continuing influences on future enrollment.
Ending: District staff said Zonda will return with draft rezoning maps and options in June; any final boundary changes would be timed to allow staffing and student notification well in advance of the 2026‑27 school year.
