Multnomah County narrows FY2026 shortfall to $15.5 million but warns of larger multi‑year gap

Multnomah County budget staff told the Board of Commissioners on March 18 that the county's March five‑year general fund forecast reduces the projected fiscal year 2026 shortfall to $15.5 million from the $21.2 million shown in November, but cautioned that deficits widen over the forecast horizon without policy changes.

Jeff Renfro, who identified himself as a member of the county budget office, said the March update incorporates increased revenue assumptions and technical adjustments that shrink this year's projected gap. "We have to balance our budget. So we get to balance, and then we carry those changes through the five years of the forecast," Renfro said, adding, "we do think that fiscal year 2026 will be our toughest year."

At a glance: the presentation lists a set of specific forecast adjustments. The county increased the business income tax (BIT) assumption by $2.0 million and motor vehicle rental tax receipts by $1.5 million; it trimmed expected revenue from U.S. Marshal bed usage to 15 average beds; and it modestly lowered cigarette‑related revenues. Those and other technical changes produced a $4.7 million, or about 0.6 percent, net increase in expected current‑year revenues compared with the adopted budget baseline.

Why it matters: budget staff…