National Weather Service warns of elevated June–July fire potential; snowpack near normal but melting

Tyler Solis of the National Weather Service in Reno briefed the Truckee Meadows Fire Protection District board June 3 on recent winter conditions, current snowpack, drought status and the seasonal fire-weather outlook.

Solis said April 1 snow water equivalent across many watersheds finished “near normal,” an unusual run of back-to-back near‑normal winters. He warned, however, that warming temperatures are causing rapid snowmelt and below‑normal soil moisture in many basins. “We’re starting to see the snowpack melt,” he said.

For drought, Solis said the most severe conditions remain southward into Southern California and the Desert Southwest, with localized drought in the Pacific Northwest and portions of the northern Interior Mountain West. The Climate Prediction Center outlook shared in the presentation shows drought persisting in the Southwest and expanding in some northern areas over the summer months.

On wildfire risk, Solis said geographic area coordination centers are forecasting above‑normal significant fire potential in June across Western Nevada and the Sierra, driven primarily by rapidly drying grasses and brush and by periods when heat and low humidity are followed by trough passages that increase winds. “There’ll probably be, like, a couple day period where we have that residual hot and dry conditions coupled with those increasing winds, and that’ll elevate the fire threat,” he said.

Solis noted the monsoon is expected to arrive on time and could be unusually active this year—meaning more frequent lightning events if moisture pushes northward—though June’s precipitation signal is not clear for the Truckee Meadows area. He also highlighted that the Northern Great Basin retains some higher-elevation snow water equivalent while the Sierra shows below-normal April 1 conditions for this time of year, consistent with seasonal melt.

Commissioners asked about staffing and federal funding for the National Weather Service; Solis referred inquiries about federal budget decisions to the agency’s public affairs office and said meteorologists focus on weather forecasting. Commissioners also asked about local impacts of recent warm late‑May weather on higher‑elevation snowpack; Solis said the recent heat removed much of the lower‑elevation snow and dented the high‑elevation snowpack that remains near 10,000 feet.

The briefing was presented as informational; the board did not take any formal action on the report.