UTSA researchers report 10% citywide drop in violent crime in 2024; treated hot spots down ~22%

UTSA researchers presented the second-year evaluation of San Antonio’s violent crime reduction plan and reported a roughly 10% decrease in violent street crime citywide in 2024 compared with 2023, with larger reductions (about 22%) in treated hot spots, the researchers said.

Dr. Smith of UTSA described the plan’s three interlocking strategies: (1) near-term hot‑spots policing to increase officer visibility at the city’s most violent places; (2) a midterm problem-oriented, place‑based approach to address proximate drivers of violence at specific locations; and (3) a planned offender-focused (focused deterrence) strategy that had not yet been implemented at scale as of the end of 2024.

UTSA reported that, across 2024, murders were down about 20%, robberies of individuals were down about 9%, aggregated assaults down about 8% and deadly conduct down about 19% compared with the prior year. The hot‑spot treatments showed stronger effects: treated hot spots collectively saw an estimated 22% drop in violent crime. High-visibility patrols reduced incidents, and high-visibility plus foot-patrols produced larger reductions; an early offender‑focused treatment in the final period of 2024 was associated with an approximately 50% reduction in treated grids where it was applied, the presentation said.

UTSA also presented more granular findings: arrests increased roughly 1% citywide and roughly 28% in treated hot spots; violent‑crime arrests in treated hot spots fell about 39%; calls for service tied to violent incidents declined about 3% citywide and about 16% in treated hot spots. Fidelity (the degree to which hot‑spot patrols were present as planned) averaged about 85% across periods and improved to the 90%+ range toward the end of the year.

The researchers reported results from a six‑month problem‑oriented intervention at 1303 Rigsby Avenue (Rosemont and Highland Park Apartments). The multidisciplinary team produced 19 recommendations; staff reported 14 were fully or partly addressed. After implementation, violent crime at that site fell by roughly half in the latter half of 2024, but family‑violence incidents increased, which UTSA flagged as an area needing continued attention.

Councilmembers welcomed the report as evidence the strategy is working and discussed next steps. Councilman White said the data showed the hot‑spot approach works and urged faster staffing increases; the chief and staff noted that budget and hiring timelines are council decisions and that the department and UTSA are continuing planning for the offender‑focused phase. The city and UTSA said they are identifying a second problem‑oriented site and continue discussions about the timeline for the offender‑focused strategy.