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TJPA update: cap‑and‑trade reauthorization remains uncertain; Senate ahead, auctions show volatility

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Summary

Townsend Public Affairs and TJPA staff updated the board March 13 on outreach in Sacramento as lawmakers consider reauthorizing Californias cap‑and‑trade program; staff said the Senate is farther along in talks and recent auction proceeds have fluctuated, affecting revenue expectations.

Townsend Public Affairs summarized the state legislative landscape affecting the Transbay Portal and other regional transit projects during the March 13 TJPA board meeting.

Niccolo DeLuca of Townsend Public Affairs briefed the board on the beginning of the 2025–26 legislative session in Sacramento. He said the Senates working group is farther along in its discussions and has indicated support for maintaining a 25% set‑aside for high‑speed rail in some proposals, while the Assembly is less advanced and more cautious about allocations.

DeLuca and TJPA executive staff told the board they are prioritizing advocacy for three items tied to cap‑and‑trade reauthorization: (1) reauthorize the program as soon as possible, (2) build out the funding pots for which the portal would be eligible, and (3) seek a line item or a clearly defined allocation for the project where possible. DeLuca described Senate working groups led by Senator Monique Limon (Santa Barbara) and mentioned Assembly working group leadership by Assemblymember Jackie (name in transcript uncertain) and Assemblymember Isaac (name in transcript uncertain), noting the Assembly staff was asking for tangible evidence that past greenhouse gas reduction investments have produced constructed projects.

Board members asked about auction proceeds and bond discussions. TJPA executive staff reported the most recent quarterly cap‑and‑trade auction produced roughly $830,000,000 in proceeds, down from about $1,300,000,000 the prior quarter. Staff cautioned auctions can be cyclical and said market expectations about reauthorization timing can influence industry participation. Staff also said some legislators are proposing to allocate portions of proceeds for wildfire resilience and operating support; a letter from Los Angeles‑area senators requested $2,000,000,000 for operating assistance, which would exceed recent operating support levels and could affect capital allocations such as high‑speed rail or the Portal.

DeLuca said reauthorization timing is a critical variable: an early reauthorization increases the chances of multi‑year capital awards and predictable funds for large projects; a delayed reauthorization risks lower auction participation and smaller proceeds.

No formal board action was taken on state legislative matters at the meeting.