February forecast shows short-term K–12 surplus, larger longer-term deficit as inflation raises formula costs

On March 11, 2025, the Minnesota House Education Finance Committee heard a presentation from nonpartisan House fiscal staff on the February 2025 K–12 education finance forecast, which committee staff said members should use as the base for constructing the education finance bill.

The staff presentation said the state’s projected general-fund balance for fiscal 2026–27 is $455,777,000 under the February forecast; staff noted that if inflation is excluded from that calculation the balance would be $1,601,000,000. Staff also showed that for fiscal 2028–29 the forecasted balance is substantially negative: including inflation the February forecast shows a $5,995,000,000 shortfall for FY 2028–29 and without inflation a $2,379,000,000 shortfall, according to the materials presented to the committee.

Committee members were given an eight‑page spreadsheet titled “K through 12 education finance February 2025 forecast aid appropriation summary.” House fiscal staff said the sheet is structured as a base budget: left to right it lists line numbers, program names, prior (November 2024) forecast columns, February 2025 forecast columns, and change…