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Demographic study: Sunnyside enrollment largely flat but projects 474 fewer high school students over seven years
Summary
A 7-year demographic forecast by MGT Impact Solutions shows relatively stable districtwide enrollment but predicts a 9–12 decline of about 474 students by 2031; staff will update the study and examine recruitment and program options.
MGT Impact Solutions presented a seven-year demographic forecast for Sunnyside Unified District that projects relatively stable districtwide enrollment but a notable decline at the high school level.
David Cates of MGT told the governing board the firm used three primary factors in its projection—birth-year (kindergarten) cohorts, student mobility within established neighborhoods, and residential development yields—and ran forecasts for 295 small study areas across the district. The district’s October 10th snapshot shows total enrollment at about 13,555 students (preK–12), and MGT’s model combines historical October snapshots, local development data and student residence mapping.
MGT estimated that recent residential development in the district will generate students at a rate of roughly 0.546 K–12 students per new single-family unit (about 55 students per 100 single-family units). The firm reported approximately 368 known single-family units in the pipeline for the district and said it will update the inventory to include newly announced apartment projects the board identified during the presentation.
The forecast shows little net change for preK–6 and 7–8, but projects a decline of about 474 students in grades 9–12 across the district over the next seven years. Cates said the decline is driven by smaller birth cohorts feeding into the system and that the pattern is not unique to Sunnyside: “I don’t mean to say losing kids is a good thing. It’s definitely not. But it’s not as bad as I would have thought, compared to what I’ve seen for a lot of other districts,” he told the board.
Board members asked about out-of-district students (MGT reported roughly 1,808 out-of-district students enrolled in Sunnyside schools as of the last snapshot) and capture rates; Cates said the kindergarten capture rate by ZIP-code analysis has been around 39–40 percent. The presentation included attendance matrices that cross-tabulate where students live, which schools they attend and school capacities; MGT found some pockets of growth (notably in parts of the north) and some zones nearing capacity, such as Craycroft and Elvira, where staff said they will continue to monitor enrollment patterns and the impact of new housing.
Cates told the board he will provide an updated forecast after the district’s next October snapshot and after a refreshed sweep of city and county planning data for recently permitted residential projects. Board members encouraged district staff to consider marketing and program strategies—career academies, fine arts, athletics and specialty programs—if the district wants to increase capture and stabilize high school enrollment.
The presentation was informational; there was no board action required. MGT will provide a refreshed forecast later in the fall and will work with district staff on program-level analyses if requested.
