County presentation: job growth outpaced housing supply as population falls and the workforce ages

At a Summit County meeting, a staff presentation warned that job creation has outpaced housing production while the county’s population and working-age cohorts have begun to decline.

Jeff, a county staff member who presented updated population and jobs data, said the Utah Population Committee’s 2024 estimate showed the county’s population decreased by 186 people and that recent years show a sustained three-year trend rather than a single-year anomaly. "We're starting to see this 3 year trend, it's no longer just an anomaly," Jeff said.

The presenter told members the county saw strong job gains in 2022 and 2023—about 2,000 jobs in 2022 and 1,500 in 2023—but job growth slowed to 332 additional jobs in 2024. Over the same multi-year period the county logged 586 building permits and roughly 586 new housing units; after accounting for the vacancy rate associated with short-term rentals, the net housing gain available to residents was about 224 units. Jeff said short-term rentals currently account for roughly 38.3% of the county’s housing stock, a factor that reduces housing available to local workers.

Jeff summarized medium-term projections that show continued job growth (a projected 6,636 new jobs by 2035, an 18.5% increase) even as population projections to 2035 show a net decline (a projected loss of 256 people). "If you take that vacant number out, is only 224 units to accommodate 3,845 new jobs," Jeff said, noting that imbalance will force more workers to commute into the county or to live outside it.

The presentation also included an age-cohort forecast that raised concerns about future labor-supply shortages. Jeff highlighted a projected increase in residents aged 70 and older while most working-age cohorts are expected to shrink. "That scares me to death because having a dependency ratio of like that where you could see these huge increases in 70 to 85 and then losing all of the working age population," Jeff said.

Committee members and attendees discussed housing responses. Jessica, an attendee, said the county needs more long-term rental housing. "Rental, we need more," Jessica said. Other participants urged expanding housing types to match demographic demand—smaller units and long-term rental options—rather than primarily building four-bedroom units that dominate the current stock.

The group discussed market drivers that have pushed housing costs up: investor purchases, short-term rental income, and high land costs. Jeff said owners and investors frequently price to short-term-rental returns, which can add between 5% and 13% to a property’s market value. He also compared nearby Wasatch County, which is projected to add jobs and population in closer balance, and noted that Summit County’s current pattern of job-heavy growth without matching housing will likely continue to push local employers to seek workers who commute in.

Speakers connected the demographic and housing trends to other local impacts. Jeff and others noted declining school enrollments in parts of the county—Park City School District was cited as having peaked around 2017 and since declined—and said aging infrastructure and large bond requests could be difficult to sell to voters amid population stagnation or decline.

Participants proposed policy responses the committee could pursue or promote: deed-restricted units that cap appreciation, more long-term rental development, zoning changes or designated commercial/industrial zones to attract the kinds of businesses that will create higher-paying jobs, and more aggressive outreach to smaller towns in the county to share data and coordinate planning. Jeff suggested quarterly updates to outlying towns and that the committee consider presentations in Eastern Summit County.

The presentation included an industry forecast: numeric job growth largest in accommodation and food service (about 1,681 jobs projected over the next 10 years), construction (about 758 jobs), and health care and social assistance, while fastest percentage growth is projected in wholesale trade, healthcare and manufacturing. Jeff noted that whether new jobs raise local wages depends on the types of jobs added and their average earnings per job.

Participants repeatedly returned to zoning and the comprehensive plan as levers to direct where housing and business development happen. Several speakers urged planning changes to create small warehouse or business-park spaces where contractors and wholesalers could store materials and operate without pushing work trailers into residential driveways.

The presentation closed with committee members agreeing to consider increased outreach and to explore policy tools to increase affordable long-term housing and to align the county’s comprehensive plan with anticipated industry and housing needs.