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NESDAC projections show Timberlane enrollment stabilizing over next decade, district analyst says
Summary
District staff presented New England School Development Council (NESDAC) enrollment projections showing Timberlane Regional School District enrollment roughly stable for the next decade.
A Timberlane staff member presenting NESDAC data told the school board that district enrollment is projected to remain largely stable through about 2035.
The presenter, identified in materials as Mark, walked trustees through four visuals: the district projection showing little change for the next decade; a births‑to‑kindergarten tracking graph showing cohort links between birth years and subsequent kindergarten cohorts; a regional comparison showing that much of New Hampshire and the Northeast experienced downward enrollment trends; and an internally compiled comparison using PowerSchool historical enrollments that concluded NESDAC projections have frequently been lower than the district—s actual enrollment since the early 2000s.
Mark explained that the New England School Development Council report (NESDAC) is commonly used by districts for planning and that the district—s internal checks compare Nasdaq/NESDAC projections to PowerSchool reality to inform staffing and course‑offering decisions.
Board members asked clarifying questions about NESDAC methodology and whether building permits were accounted for; the presenter acknowledged building permits can create local fluctuations and said the district maintains its own PowerSchool‑based tracking for more granular planning by town and grade.
No formal action was taken; board members said the data will inform staffing and budget planning.
Authorities and data sources cited included the New England School Development Council enrollment report and internal PowerSchool records.
