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LAO warns CDCR’s Prop 36 estimates may overstate population declines and budgetary savings
Summary
CDCR presented fall 2024 population projections and a preliminary adjustment for Proposition 36; the Legislative Analyst’s Office told the subcommittee the administration’s assumptions likely overestimate Prop 36’s near‑term impact and asked CDCR to revise estimates for the May revision.
Kathy Jefferson, deputy director for CDCR’s Office of Research, presented the department’s fall 2024 population projections, which include a below‑the‑line adjustment to capture the expected impact of Proposition 36. Jefferson said CDCR’s incarcerated population as of February 28 was 90,934; with the Prop 36 estimate included, CDCR estimated the institution average daily population for the…
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