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LAO warns CDCR’s Prop 36 estimates may overstate population declines and budgetary savings
Summary
CDCR presented fall 2024 population projections and a preliminary adjustment for Proposition 36; the Legislative Analyst’s Office told the subcommittee the administration’s assumptions likely overestimate Prop 36’s near‑term impact and asked CDCR to revise estimates for the May revision.
Kathy Jefferson, deputy director for CDCR’s Office of Research, presented the department’s fall 2024 population projections, which include a below‑the‑line adjustment to capture the expected impact of Proposition 36. Jefferson said CDCR’s incarcerated population as of February 28 was 90,934; with the Prop 36 estimate included, CDCR estimated the institution average daily population for the current year at 91,672 and 93,278 for the budget year; by fiscal year 2028‑29 CDCR estimated the institution population would decrease to 88,787.
Caitlin O’Neil of the Legislative Analyst’s Office told the committee that LAO found some of the administration’s assumptions about the Prop 36 impact “not plausible,” and that the department’s methodology likely overestimates the number of people who will leave custody as a result of the measure. The LAO recommended that CDCR revise its methodology and provide updated estimates in the May revision; LAO flagged potential overbudgeting by millions in the current year and possibly tens of millions in the budget year if the department’s assumptions are not corrected.
The committee and department agreed CDCR will continue to monitor Prop 36 implementation and update estimates as new data are available; the department said it will provide updated projections in the May revision. Department of Finance and LAO staff said accurate estimates are critical to avoid under‑ or over‑reserving funds for CDCR operations.
Ending: The subcommittee asked CDCR to work with LAO and submit revised population and budget impact estimates for the May revision.
