Oro Valley releases first retail gap analysis using Placer.ai; staff recommends shop‑local program and targeted recruitment

The Oro Valley Community and Economic Development Department on March 5 presented a retail gap analysis — the town’s first — using Placer.ai mobility and spending data, and proposed a two‑part strategy to reduce retail and restaurant sales “leakage.”

Director Paul Melcher and Economic Development Specialist Margie Adler said the study identifies where Oro Valley residents make retail and dining purchases outside town and which regional “attractors” draw the most visits. "Community shopping centers outside the town and large attractors like Costco and the Tucson Auto Mall generate the most outbound visits by our residents," Melcher said.

Findings and recommendations

- Leakage drivers: The analysis found major outbound spending categories include automobile dealers, general merchandise and building/material supplies. The Tucson Auto Mall, Costco and the Foothills Mall emerged as regional attractors that draw Oro Valley residents. - Quantities: Using the Placer.ai outputs, the staff report estimated very large unmet needs in some categories; for example, automobile sales by Oro Valley residents were shown as a substantial amount because no full‑service dealers exist inside town limits. - Two‑pronged response: Staff recommended (1) a targeted shop‑local program that uses customer‑profile advertising and trackable promotions and (2) targeted recruitment of retailers and restaurants whose visitor profiles match Oro Valley demand.

Melcher told council Placer.ai updates its data every three days; that timeliness allows staff to measure the effect of shop‑local campaigns and adjust recruitment pitches to property owners and national brands. "We can track results in near real time to see which programs meaningfully increase visits and sales locally," Melcher said.

What council asked and next steps

Councilmembers praised the data approach and asked staff to move from analysis to programs. Staff said they will work with the Oro Valley Chamber of Commerce and the town’s ExploreOV promotion platform to design pilot shop‑local programs, craft tailored messaging for distinct shopper profiles, and begin targeted outreach to potential retailers. Melcher said even small recapture percentages would yield material revenue — a 1% recapture of identified leakage would translate into hundreds of thousands of dollars in local sales tax potential over time.

The department said recruitment and site development are longer‑term efforts if new construction is needed, but shop‑local measures could produce measurable results more quickly.