Palo Alto poll shows tentative support for Cubberley overhaul; council plans more community testing

A majority of likely Palo Alto voters told a city-commissioned survey they generally support issuing a bond to purchase additional Cubberley land and improve the site, but most said they needed more detail before committing to a specific price or design. The finding emerged during a study session on June 9 at a City Council meeting.

The poll of 437 registered Palo Alto voters, presented by Dave Metz of FM3 Research, found 62% initially said they would support a conceptual bond measure and that support rose to about 72% after respondents heard more detailed messages about needs and benefits. At the same time, many respondents described their support as only “somewhat” in favor or said they were undecided pending more information.

The survey also showed voters rated the condition of the Cubberley buildings as a greater problem than the programs offered there — 51% said they were dissatisfied with the physical condition versus 47% satisfied with programming. Voters prioritized “efficient use of taxpayer dollars,” preserving trees and green space, earthquake retrofits and safe spaces for children and teens among potential project goals.

Kristen O'Kane, Community Services Director for the City of Palo Alto, and Christine Perras, Assistant Director of Administrative Services, reviewed project schedule and outreach plans. “Community engagement in various forms is integrated throughout this effort,” O’Kane told the council. FM3’s Dave Metz said future surveys will present more concrete packages of improvements and price points so voters can react to an assembled proposal rather than the separate elements tested in the April survey.

Council members emphasized the need to connect likely voter willingness to pay with realistic project scoping. “We need to have a connection between those two,” Council member Greg Burt said, noting costs for adaptive reuse versus new construction vary widely. Staff estimated, as a rough guide, that $250 per household per year could generate roughly $75 million to $150 million in revenue citywide while $500 per household could produce about $150 million to $300 million, depending on measure structure and other variables.

Officials said the next steps include three community meetings (the next was scheduled for June 12) where the consultant will present three distinct concepts, additional commission briefings this summer, a fall poll with a concrete package and a likely September community meeting to present a single preferred concept.

The presentation also outlined a near-term activation plan to animate the site and build community awareness and support while master planning continues. Staff said activations will be phased and coordinated with the public art commission, parks and recreation commission and Cubberley users.

Council members asked FM3 to provide cross-tabulated results by neighborhood and demographic segments to help target outreach and messaging. Metz said he would provide the full cross-tabs to staff and council.

The study session produced no formal vote. Council members and staff said they intend to continue public engagement, refine cost and phasing assumptions, and return with more-specific polling and a financing framework later this year.