Demographer: Younger adults driving out‑migration from high‑cost metros as statewide housing demand rises

Hamilton Lombard, a demographer at the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center, told the Virginia Housing Commission that younger adults are the primary driver of migration from higher‑cost metro areas into smaller cities and rural counties across Virginia.

Lombard said the pattern, which first intensified during the pandemic, has continued into 2024 despite higher mortgage interest rates. "The significant trend we've seen over this past year really is a continuation of what we've seen since the pandemic, which has been more households, particularly younger households, moving out of higher cost metro areas to lower ones," he said.

Lombard told commissioners the return of strong immigration and a net inflow of residents from other U.S. states helped push Virginia's population growth to its highest rate in a decade. He said Northern Virginia remains a net exporter of residents to other parts of the country but that Richmond, many small metro areas and rural counties are now attracting those movers. Lombard cited Census Bureau data showing a surge in people working in Washington, D.C., but living in southern parts of Virginia, and said remote work has enlarged commuter sheds and enabled relocation.

The presentation highlighted that migration is concentrated among younger adults—households age 25 to 44—and that the homeownership rate for 25‑34 year‑olds has fallen in higher‑cost regions such as Northern Virginia. "When you look at this data, the migration out of high cost metro areas was still 58% higher than it was before the pandemic," Lombard said. He pointed to charts showing higher homeownership rates for that cohort in smaller metro and rural counties than in Northern Virginia.

Lombard also described two demographic forces he expects to increase housing demand over the next decade: continued growth among people forming households (older millennials and adult Gen Z) and continued growth in the population aged 65 and older. He said the 65+ cohort has been a major source of growth in owner‑occupied households and is comparatively wealthy and mobile, which can intensify competition for single‑family homes.

Commissioners pressed Lombard on short‑term labor‑force projections and regional dynamics. He replied that Virginia's overall labor force is likely to show little growth absent large increases in immigration and that some regions may see moderate gains while others remain weak. Lombard also said housing construction remains limited in many high‑cost places, which helps push younger buyers to relocate.

Looking ahead, Lombard said the mix of remote work, demographic change and constrained single‑family supply means demand for detached three‑bedroom single‑family homes will remain high without additional supply increases.

The commission scheduled a deeper look at homelessness and related data for its August 19 meeting.