Camas projects falling enrollment, preliminary 2025-26 budget shows $1.4 million cushion after cuts
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Summary
Superintendent John reported June 23 that the Camas School District is forecasting lower enrollment through 2028–29 and presented a preliminary 2025–26 budget that includes $1.4 million in projected operating surplus after planned cuts; the board heard staff say final adoption is scheduled for August.
Superintendent John told the Camas School District Board of Directors on June 23 that enrollment is trending down and the district’s preliminary budget for 2025–26 assumes lower student counts, targeted cuts and limited salary growth.
The district is using the demographer’s low scenario for next year, projecting 6,758 students for 2025–26, Superintendent John said. That projection, together with recent settlement uncertainty and continued market pressures on wages and benefits, drives the district’s planning assumptions: zero salary matrix growth beyond step increases, a 10% target for reductions, and conservative federal-grant assumptions.
Why it matters: lower enrollment directly reduces state apportionment revenue and has driven Camas to identify cuts and contingency planning while still aiming to preserve core programs. The preliminary budget presented June 23 shows projected general-fund revenues of about $126.6 million and a preliminary $1.4 million positive variance that would increase the district’s ending fund balance to roughly $5.0 million going into the next fiscal year; the district’s board and budget committee have previously set an 8% fund-balance target and staff said more work is needed to reach that level.
Key numbers and assumptions - Enrollment assumption for 2025–26: 6,758 students (demographer’s low scenario). Superintendent John said demographers expect the district’s enrollment decline to continue through at least 2028–29. - Projected general-fund revenue (preliminary): approximately $126.6 million. - Preliminary operating surplus: $1.4 million (described by staff as a cautious, planning-level surplus that includes contingencies). - Projected ending fund balance (August 2025): roughly $5.0 million; board target is ~8% and staff said the $1.4M does not yet reach that goal. - Impact of 71-student shortfall (current year): John said the district was about 71 students below projections, equivalent to roughly $1.3 million in lost revenue over the year.
Drivers cited by staff Superintendent John and budget staff highlighted several structural and regional factors: lower birth rates, high local home prices (John cited a median sale price in Camas near $852,000 in May), persistently elevated interest rates, and increased homeschooling and private-school enrollment in Washington. Statewide public-school enrollment is down about 4% and homeschooling has risen markedly, John said. Those trends reduce the pool of incoming kindergartners even as Camas continues to graduate large senior classes.
Negotiations, timing and constraints Budget staff emphasized that labor negotiations remain a key variable. The district is in active talks with the Camas Education Association (CEA); Superintendent John said an all‑day bargaining session was scheduled for the day after the meeting and that settlement terms would materially affect final expenditure planning. Staff therefore built the preliminary budget on a zero salary-matrix-growth assumption (aside from automatic step increases) and held off on uncommitted “add-backs” until negotiations conclude.
Other funds and capital notes Business-services staff reported normal activity in capital and other funds, and noted contingency line items in the capital projects fund for potential land or property purchases. The district is monitoring expiring impact-fee authority (staff said some fees must be spent by about 2028) and examining whether to sell surplus property to increase unrestricted capital liquidity. The transportation fund includes a carryforward bus order and plans to order five full-size buses and one mini bus for next year; staff also noted a replacement bus purchase for a vehicle previously damaged by a crash.
Next steps and board timeline Staff will post the required F-195 forms by July 10 and present a final recommended budget for public hearing Aug. 25; Superintendent John and business staff said they aim to present a balanced budget in August. Staff urged continued legislative advocacy around the state prototypical funding model and regionalization, which they said have a large influence on district revenue.
Votes at a glance - Consent agenda approval (motion recorded June 23): motion to approve the consent agenda was made and seconded; the board voted in favor (vote recorded as “Aye. Aye.” on the record). Outcome: approved. (Mover/second not specified in the transcript.)
The board asked follow-up questions about enrollment trends, potential uses of impact fees, and the timing of contract settlements. Superintendent John and business-services staff said they will continue refining the numbers and bring updated projections and a final budget for the August hearing.
