LCRA says updated 2032 demand projections create shortfall; may cut interruptible farm supplies and bay flows to protect firm customers

Lower Colorado River Authority staff told the Water Operations Committee on June 18 that updated firm-demand projections through 2032, together with hydrology extended through 2023, produce modeled outcomes that would drop combined storage of Lakes Buchanan and Travis below the 600,000 acre-foot floor required by regulatory guidance, prompting staff to consider reducing interruptible agricultural allocations and limiting some bay/environmental flows.

The water management plan governs operation of the Highland Lakes to meet firm customer contracts and provide interruptible supplies and environmental flows. Kelly Payne, senior vice president in charge of water operations, told the committee the initial runs of the updated water-availability model returned a minimum combined storage of about 486,000 acre-feet under the 2032 demand case using the current 2020 plan framework — well under the 600,000-acre-foot target the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) requires the plan to preserve.

That gap means staff must consider adjustments to the interruptible component of supply and to environmental flow commitments, Payne said. "The levers we have are very limited and focused on the interruptible component of the water we supply from the Highland Lakes," Payne said. He described four levers under evaluation: lowering the maximum interruptible stored water made available in normal years; initiating…