LCRA says updated 2032 demand projections create shortfall; may cut interruptible farm supplies and bay flows to protect firm customers

Lower Colorado River Authority staff told the Water Operations Committee on June 18 that updated firm-demand projections through 2032, together with hydrology extended through 2023, produce modeled outcomes that would drop combined storage of Lakes Buchanan and Travis below the 600,000 acre-foot floor required by regulatory guidance, prompting staff to consider reducing interruptible agricultural allocations and limiting some bay/environmental flows.

The water management plan governs operation of the Highland Lakes to meet firm customer contracts and provide interruptible supplies and environmental flows. Kelly Payne, senior vice president in charge of water operations, told the committee the initial runs of the updated water-availability model returned a minimum combined storage of about 486,000 acre-feet under the 2032 demand case using the current 2020 plan framework — well under the 600,000-acre-foot target the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) requires the plan to preserve.

That gap means staff must consider adjustments to the interruptible component of supply and to environmental flow commitments, Payne said. "The levers we have are very limited and focused on the interruptible component of the water we supply from the Highland Lakes," Payne said. He described four levers under evaluation: lowering the maximum interruptible stored water made available in normal years; initiating curtailment of interruptible supplies at higher combined-storage levels; triggering less-severe and extraordinary drought conditions earlier; and moving up any "anytime" cutoff of interruptible stored water to higher storage thresholds.

The committee received a separate basin-conditions briefing showing recent improvements from May rains but continued drought severity in parts of the basin. Payne said May inflows into the Highland Lakes totaled about 68,600 acre-feet (roughly 35% of long-term average for May), and that through early June the basin had produced about 108,400 acre-feet of inflow that was still arriving into the lakes. Combined storage was about 976,700 acre-feet (roughly 49% full) on June 1; staff reported an early-morning update during the meeting putting combined storage near 1,051,000 acre-feet, about 53% full.

Under LCRA's drought contingency plan (DCP) triggers shown to the committee, staff said the system is currently in DCP stage 2, in which the primary customer restriction is once-weekly outdoor watering. Exiting stage 2 and returning to stage 1 would occur if combined storage rises above about 1,100,000 acre-feet; dropping below about 750,000 acre-feet would move the system into stage 3. Payne cautioned that, "if we remain dry" along the lower-percentile model projections, the system could enter stage 3 sometime in September.

Staff also described modeling details used in the update. The water-management update uses an extended hydrology dataset covering 1940 through 2023, applies simulated re-orderings of historic hydrology (a 2,000-run stochastic approach), and projects municipal and industrial firm demands to 2032. The modeling showed normal-year firm demands increasing about 19% relative to the 2025 projections used in the 2020 plan; high-year demands increase about 8%. Under the 2020 plan framework and the higher 2032 demands, the modeled minimum combined storage fell to about 486,000 acre-feet in an initial test, prompting staff to explore the adjustments noted above.

Staff noted the water-management plan update must remain within the TCEQ framework and meet the minimum-storage expectation embedded in LCRA's water-rights application process. The update will also examine changes to the volumes or timing of flows provided to Matagorda Bay and inflow percentages from Highland Lakes to the bay, including potential incremental reductions in maximum bay volumes and adjusted percentages of inflow made available to the bay during drier conditions.

Public comment: Shane Som, a Lago Vista city councilman, asked LCRA to form a Highland Lakes municipal advisory group to improve transparency and share locally held data such as locally adopted living-unit equivalents (LUEs). "The update to the water management plan is something that the citizens themselves came and talked to us about," Som said. He said Lago Vista is expanding drinking-water and wastewater facilities and that LUE counts shared by municipalities would help basin planning.

Staff said participant meetings on the update are underway; two meetings were held in March and April and staff will present initial model results to the participant group on June 25. Staff described a planned schedule to brief the board on the update in the fall (October) and said formal consideration and any board action would likely be after the start of the next calendar year. If the board pursues changes that affect LCRA's water-rights, staff said the update will be submitted to TCEQ as an amendment to LCRA's water-right application with notice to base and affected interests and an opportunity for contested-case procedures.

Committee action: the committee approved the minutes of the previous meeting by voice vote; the transcript records that the motion was seconded by Director Willman and that the motion "passes," without a recorded roll-call tally.

Next steps: staff will present initial model results to participants June 25, continue stakeholder engagement through the summer and early fall, refine proposed adjustments to interruptible supplies and environmental flows, and prepare a formal plan submittal to TCEQ following further board briefings.

Ending: Committee members thanked staff for the briefing; the committee adjourned at 10:20 a.m.