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CDCR projects short-term prison uptick from Prop 36; LAO says estimates likely overstated
Summary
California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation presented fall 2024 population projections that include a preliminary estimate of the impact of Proposition 36. The Legislative Analyst's Office warned the administration's method likely overestimates the effect and urged revisions for the May budget update.
Kathy Jefferson, deputy director of the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) Office of Research, told the Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 6 on March 19 that CDCR’s fall 2024 population projections include a preliminary, "below the line" adjustment to capture the potential impact of Proposition 36.
Jefferson said CDCR’s projections run through June 30, 2029, and that the department’s total incarcerated population as of Feb. 28 was 90,934. With CDCR’s preliminary Prop 36 estimate included, CDCR provided an institution average daily population (ADP) estimate of 91,672 for the current year and 93,278 for the budget year; by fiscal year 2028–29 the institution population is projected to decline to 88,787. CDCR reported a parole population of 34,583 as of Feb. 28 and…
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