CDCR projects short-term prison increase from Prop 36; LAO says administration likely overstated impact

The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation presented fall 2024 population projections to the Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 6 on public safety, including a preliminary adjustment to capture the expected effect of Proposition 36; the Legislative Analyst’s Office told the panel the administration’s estimate is likely too high.

Kathy Jefferson, deputy director of the CDCR Office of Research, told the subcommittee CDCR prepares population projections twice a year to align with the state budget cycle and that the department’s projections have performed well in recent cycles, with a 12‑month error rate of about 1 percent. Jefferson said CDCR’s fall 2024 projection — which includes data and estimated impacts of policy and process changes through June 30, 2024 — initially forecasted a 9 percent, five‑year decrease in the institution population from June 30, 2024, to June 30, 2029. After…